TWO HURRICANES HEADED FOR HAWAII August 7, 2014 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA.

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TWO HURRICANES HEADED FOR HAWAII August 7, 2014 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

HURRICANES ISELLE (center) AND JULIO (right)

THEY ARE THE FIRST HIRRICANES IN 22 YEARS TO HIT HAWAII

FORECAST: ISELLE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY (Aug. 7 th );JULIO WILL PASS ON THE NORTH ON SUNDAY (Aug. 10 th )

FOR EXTRA MEASURE, A M4.5 EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED ON AIG.7TH

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AND RISK FROM HURRICANES

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS (AKA HAZARDS) OF A HURRICANE WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)] DEBRIS STORM SURGE/FLOODS HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION

HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A HURRICANE Entire communities; People, property, infrastructure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.

A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A HURRICANE INTERACT WITH A COMMUNITY

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE TYPHOONS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

A DISASTER is the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., windstorms, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE... When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST.

THE REASONS ARE... The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE... The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE... The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE... The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A HURRICANE DISASTER IS HURRICANE DISASTER RESILIENCE

HAWAII’SCOMMUNITIESHAWAII’SCOMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS WINDSTORM HAZARDS PEOPLE & BLDGS. VULNERABILITY LOCATION WINDSTORM RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: HURRICANE DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

TECHNOLOGIES FOR MONITORING, FORECASTING, WARNING, AND DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE VITAL FOR SURVIVAL IN A HURRICANE