1 A Snapshot of Travel Modeling Activities 12 th TRB Planning Application Conference May 20, 2009 Fred Ducca & Supin Yoder, FHWA David Kurth, Cambridge Systematics

2 Presentation Outline Impetus of the Snapshot Project NAS Report 288 Summaries of MPOs with good practice

3 TRB Special Report 288: Metropolitan Travel Forecasting Determine state of practice in metropolitan travel forecasting Determine capability of models to address current issues Recommend actions needed to ensure models can address current issues

4 Snapshot of Good Modeling Practice In-depth understanding of MPOs with good modeling practice Interviewed five MPOs Atlanta, Columbus, Dallas-Fort Worth, Sacramento and Seattle, Project Report: A Snapshot of Travel modeling Activities Detailed technical reviews of Activity Based Models Columbus & Sacramento Project Report: Activity Based Travel Demand Forecasting, Reviews of MORPC and SACOG Modeling Practices

5 Snapshot – MPO Models MPOCurrent ModelEmerging Practice Model ARCTrip-basedDeveloping MORPCActivity-/tour- based Existing NCTCOGTrip-basedDeveloping PSRCTrip-basedDeveloping SACOGBothExisting

6 Snapshot – MPO Model Components MPOGenerationDistribution ARCLogit & Cross-ClassGravity MORPCLogitDestination Choice NCTCOGCross-ClassGravity PSRCCross-ClassGravity SACOGCross-ClassDest. Choice & Gravity

7 Snapshot – MPO Model Components MPOMode ChoiceTime-of-Day ARCNested LogitDiurnal Factors MORPCMultinomial LogitLogit-Based Choice NCTCOGNested LogitDiurnal Factors PSRCMultinomial LogitLogit-Based Choice SACOGNested LogitDiurnal Factors

8 Snapshot – MPO Model Components MPOLand UseTruck Model ARCIPEF/DRAM-EMPAL3-Step-Local Data MORPCGIS-BasedQFRM-based NCTCOGDRAM-EMPAL3-Step-Local Data PSRCDRAM-EMPAL3-Step-WS Data SACOGNone3-Step-Local Data

9 Snapshot – MPO Typical Applications ARCMORPCNCTCOGPSRCSACOG Conformity●●●● Project Prior. ●●● EIS● ●●● LRTP ● ●●●● SIP●●● New Starts●●●●● TSM/TDM●●

10 MPO Interview Topic Areas Role of the travel model in the transportation planning process; Primary challenges and emerging issues regarding use of travel models/forecasts; Support for the travel modeling process; Future plans for travel model updates.

11 MPO Interview Topic Areas Role of the travel model in the transportation planning process; Models play a central role More pronounced as funding lags needs

12 MPO Interview Topic Areas Primary challenges and emerging issues regarding use of travel models/forecasts; 2 broad groups of challenges Those addressed with existing models, ad hoc analysis, major assumptions, or less detail than desired. Those that cannot be credibly addressed with current models.

13 MPO Interview Topic Areas Support for the travel modeling process; Strong in each of the areas Financial support provides evidence Annual budgets for modeling, planning, data collection, land use, consultants & misc. ranged from $1.85 M – $5.6 M

14 MPO Interview Topic Areas Future plans for travel model updates 2 MPOs have ABMs 3 MPOs developing ABMs

15 Snapshot – Findings Fiscal constraint puts more focus on evaluation Need to establish model credibility with MPO Board Current models’ limited ability to address emerging issues Short term solutions developed

16 Snapshot - Findings Motivation for activity models Activity based models promising Address more complex issues Parallel Approach to Model Improvements Continuous improvement to existing four step model Incremental move to advanced model Need for time dependent network models SHRP C-10

17 Snapshot - Findings Need for freight models Challenges Develop and maintain quality data Limited resources for advanced model Training Computer resources Budgetary Staffing for modeling / training

18 Snapshot - Conclusions Four step remains basic approach Inherent shortcomings Need for quality data Context specific applications Obstacle to improvement Limited resources Findings support TRB SR 288

19 Links TRB SR Snapshot of Good Modeling Practice owse/list/6/ owse/list/6/1276 TMIP