Physical Mechanisms  Seasonality (phenology) of physical processes (upwelling, cross-shelf transport, FW input, …)  Freshwater input: coastal currents.

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Presentation transcript:

Physical Mechanisms  Seasonality (phenology) of physical processes (upwelling, cross-shelf transport, FW input, …)  Freshwater input: coastal currents (GOA, SO, GB, CCS)  Advection: shelf water crossovers (GB), LF salinity anomalies (GB), ENSO-related anomalies (CCS)  Retention/Loss:NAO-related shelf-ring interactions (NWA); mesoscale features (eddies, fronts); ACC variation (SO)  Land-Sea temperature contrasts: Katabatic winds (SO), changes in upwelling strength (CCS), SST variation  Vertical Structure: local heating; effects of heating on biological rate processes (all sites); stratification effects on upwelling efficiency (CCS)

Biological Mechanisms  Direct effects of heating on biological rate processes (all sites)  Range shifts in spp due to temperature (or other) variations  Changes in predator/prey relationships, ecosystem structure (incl. range shifts)  Ecosystem efficiency (conversion of PP to HTL) due to changes in food web components (e.g., food chain length)  Are certain target spp mpre resilient/adaptable to variability?  Relative time scales of advective processes to life cycle closure times  Fronts/thin layers are exploitable by “intelligent” organisms  Biogeochemical variability (e.g., ocean acidification) --> IMBER  Interaction b/w climate change & human activity (overfishing) on ecosystem resiliency (e.g., response to regime shift)

Temporal/Spatial Scales  Tidal mixing & shelf-slope fronts are hotspots of NPP and HTL (NWA)  Topographically-controlled hot spots (Hecata Bank in CCS has long residence times; upwelling shadows around capes/headlands)  Topographically-steered UCDW onto shelf (SO)  Hypoxic events (CCS)  Long-lived mesoscale eddies (e.g., Haida in GOA) can transport coastal material offshore  Top Predators: utilize hot spots (persistent features or regions) for various ecological functions (foraging, migration, reproduction)  Riverine inputs (nuts, FW, statification)  Intraseasonal oscillations (NEP); SSWC-related salinity anomalies (GB); storm events (all)  More (?) relevant: ENSO, NAO, SAM (interannual to decadal variability)

Attributes/Methods  Low observability and predictability for episodic events  Sample appropriately for the process being studied (e.g., intraseasonal resolution to capture spring transition)  Long-term HF moored samplers, satellite-based sensors, species- specific sensors (taxonomic info), ship-based studies, AUVs, gliders, drifters/floats, electronic tags … COUPLED to an interactive, data- assimilative high-res physical-biological model!  Need to maintain current capabilities in satellite sensors (at least)