© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst Utilities Sector Regulated.

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Presentation transcript:

© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst Utilities Sector Regulated and Integrated Electric Utilities Gas Pipelines and Gas Utilities

Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Utilities Sector Performance Utilities have outperformed the broad index on a 3-year basis. Indexed Total Return (1 Year and 3 Years)

Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Regulated Utilities Performance The regulated utilities outperform in the first half of a recession. Indexed Total Return (1 Year and 3 Years)

Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Regulated Utilities Dividend Yield The regulated utilities historically have yielded 80 basis points less than the 10-year Treasury. Right now, at 5.9%, they yield 260 basis points more. 10-Year Treasury Yield Versus Regulated Average Dividend Yield

Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Integrated Utilities and Natural Gas Prices The integrated utilities have been roughly correlated with natural gas prices. Indexed Total Return (3 Years)

Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Regulated Electric Utilities  PG&E (PCG) – 1/A  Southern (SO) – 2/A  Duke (DUK) – 2/B Regulated Gas / Pipeline  Spectra (SE) – 1/B Integrated Utilities  Entergy (ETR) – 1/B  Exelon (EXC) – 1/A  FPL (FPL) – 1/A  Dominion (D) – 2/B Utilities Coverage and Themes Coverage Dividend Yield  PCG; SO Renewables  FPL; PCG Transmission  PCG?; EXC? (Watch for note soon.) Natural Gas Prices  EXC; ETR; D; FPL Carbon Legislation  EXC; ETR; FPL; D Natural Gas Infrastructure  SE Examples of Themes, Ordered by Exposure or Preference

© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst Alternative Energy Solar

Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Solar and Crude The solar companies are less correlated with crude, as it should be.

Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Chinese Solar Versus First Solar The Chinese companies have run on lower polysilicon prices; operating leverage.

© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst Thank you.