© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst Utilities Sector Regulated and Integrated Electric Utilities Gas Pipelines and Gas Utilities
Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Utilities Sector Performance Utilities have outperformed the broad index on a 3-year basis. Indexed Total Return (1 Year and 3 Years)
Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Regulated Utilities Performance The regulated utilities outperform in the first half of a recession. Indexed Total Return (1 Year and 3 Years)
Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Regulated Utilities Dividend Yield The regulated utilities historically have yielded 80 basis points less than the 10-year Treasury. Right now, at 5.9%, they yield 260 basis points more. 10-Year Treasury Yield Versus Regulated Average Dividend Yield
Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Integrated Utilities and Natural Gas Prices The integrated utilities have been roughly correlated with natural gas prices. Indexed Total Return (3 Years)
Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Regulated Electric Utilities PG&E (PCG) – 1/A Southern (SO) – 2/A Duke (DUK) – 2/B Regulated Gas / Pipeline Spectra (SE) – 1/B Integrated Utilities Entergy (ETR) – 1/B Exelon (EXC) – 1/A FPL (FPL) – 1/A Dominion (D) – 2/B Utilities Coverage and Themes Coverage Dividend Yield PCG; SO Renewables FPL; PCG Transmission PCG?; EXC? (Watch for note soon.) Natural Gas Prices EXC; ETR; D; FPL Carbon Legislation EXC; ETR; FPL; D Natural Gas Infrastructure SE Examples of Themes, Ordered by Exposure or Preference
© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst Alternative Energy Solar
Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Solar and Crude The solar companies are less correlated with crude, as it should be.
Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Chinese Solar Versus First Solar The Chinese companies have run on lower polysilicon prices; operating leverage.
© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst Thank you.