Putin is back: Russian Foreign Policy – Continuity or Change? New President, New Russia: What Next? 14.03.2012 Hanna Smith Aleksanteri Instituutti, Helsingin.

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Presentation transcript:

Putin is back: Russian Foreign Policy – Continuity or Change? New President, New Russia: What Next? Hanna Smith Aleksanteri Instituutti, Helsingin yliopisto

Politics of Putin Russia offers: pragmatism, predictability and the supremacy of international law. Russia expects: Respect and honesty ”Weak will be beaten” ”There is no such think as a former KGB man” The world is an extremely risky and hostile environment Russia is an independent power centre guided by its own national interests A serious man, who never changes his view, whatever the political environment. 2

SUNRISE - East China, China, China (Russia’s desire to develop Siberia and the Far East, economic incentives) India (strategic partners) – common in being different Russian chairmanship in G20 in 2013 No need to challenge the sovereignty of nations + variety of values US foreign policy also turning towards the Asia- Pacific region 3

DAYTIME – the lands between The area of the former Soviet Union was, is and will be Russia’s priority Putin called for greater participation in Afghanistan to block the routes of drug trafficking and financial flows to terrorists (troops withdrawal 2014?) Battle for Central Asia Eurasian Union (free-trade zone, a common space of language, science, and culture, infrastructure The carrot-and-stick approach (e.g. Azerbaijan, higher tariffs and fees for Russian energy, the threat of labour immigrants) 4

SUNSET - West Russia is an inalienable and organic part of Greater Europe and of the European civilization, and Russian citizens think of themselves as Europeans. BUT Arab Spring (esp.Syria) European credit crisis Iran's nuclear program (room to manoeuvre) Missile programme (single most significant factor) The role of NATO It’s up to US how relations will develop 5

Conclusions Change in style: Putin's style is harsher, more forceful and also more cynical than that of outgoing president Dmitry Medvedev. Continuity in substance: National interests. Sovereignty. International Law. Change in priorities: West to East from modernization alliances to strategic partners Continuity is in belief: Russia is a great power and one day will be treated so. From Great Power to Superpower? 6

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!