Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Demographic Transition Model What is it? Model that helps explain changes in a country’s demographics Demographics = population data, e.g., average age, growth rate, income, employment Each stage characterized by a relationship between birth rates and death rates Stage 2 Stage 4 Stage 1 Stage 3

Demographic Transition Model Stage 2 Stage 4 Stage 1 Stage 3 Stage 1 = Pre-Industrial Stage Population growth is stable High death rate Many diseases Poor medical care Poor sanitation Limited food supply High birth rate People have many children because most will die before adulthood Need large families to work family farms No family planning (no birth control) Religious & social norm All countries were Stage 1 prior to the Industrial Revolution Currently, there are NO countries at Stage 1

Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 = Pre-Industrial Stage

Demographic Transition Model Stage 2 Stage 4 Stage 1 Stage 3 Stage 2 = Transitional Stage Population growth increases at a rapid pace Declining death rate Better jobs Improvements in medical care Improvements in sanitation Increased food production High birth rate People are still accustomed to producing more children Have more food & resources to support larger families Countries that are transitioning to become industrial societies Sub-Saharan Africa, Guatemala, Nauru, Palestine, Yemen and Afghanistan

Demographic Transition Model Stage 2 = Transitional Stage

Demographic Transition Model Stage 2 = Transitional Stage

Demographic Transition Model Stage 2 Stage 4 Stage 1 Stage 3 Stage 3 = Industrial Stage Population growth continues Low death rate Continued improvements in nutrition, medicine, and sanitation due to higher standard of living Decreasing birth rate People stop having as many children because children have a better chance of surviving to adulthood Preference for smaller families in order to have a higher standard of living Increased status & opportunities for women (education + jobs) Increased access to contraception Factories, commercial farms, some service industries Botswana, Colombia, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates

Demographic Transition Model Stage 3 = Industrial Stage

Demographic Transition Model Stage 3 = Industrial Stage

Demographic Transition Model Stage 2 Stage 4 Stage 1 Stage 3 Stage 4 = Post-Industrial Stage Stable population size, near zero-growth Low death rate High standard of living Equal access to good healthcare Low birth rate Replacement-level fertility rate About 2 children per woman Strong economies, high levels of education, high numbers of working women Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Brazil, most of Europe, Singapore, South Korea, and the United States

Demographic Transition Model Stage 4 = Post-Industrial Stage