Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Chapter 3 Financial Planning

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Identify possible financial goals. Construct an individual’s balance sheet and cash budget. 3. Explain the importance of asset allocation to a portfolio’s return. Identify the taxes that affect investment decisions. Illustrate how capital losses are used to offset capital gains and ordinary. Explain the importance of the speed of price changes to efficient markets.

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Differentiate among the three forms of the efficient market hypothesis. Describe several anomalies that are inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis. Differentiate between active and passive portfolio management strategies and the investor’s belief in the efficiency of financial markets.

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Goals and financial life cycle financial life cycle: The stages of life during which individuals accumulate and subsequently use financial as The cycle has three stages: (1) a period of accumulation (2) a period of preservation (3) a period of the use or depletion of the investor’s assets sets.

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. THE PROCESS OF FINANCIAL PLANNING Setting Goals Asset Allocation Taxation

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. THE PROCESS OF FINANCIAL PLANNING The Specification of Investment Goals: 1.The capacity to meet financial emergencies 2.The financing of specific future purchases, such as the down payment for a home 3. The provision for income at retirement 4.The ability to leave a sizable estate to heirs or to charity 5.The ability to speculate or receive enjoyment from accumulating and managing wealth

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Individual’s Environment and Financial Resources Financial planning requires an analysis of the individual’s environment and financial resources. One’s environment includes such factors as age, health, employment, and family. In addition to environment, the investor should take an accurate account of financial resources. The balance sheet The cash budget

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. ASSET ALLOCATION Asset allocation is the process of determining what proportion of the portfolio should be invested in various classes of assets which determined by (1)investment policy (2)market timing (3)asset selection

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. The Federal Personal Income Tax Progressive Tax rates (brackets) from 10 to 38.6 percent as of 2002 The importance of the last (marginal) tax bracket New law reduces tax rates over time

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. A Tax Shelter Avoids taxes Reduces taxes Defers taxes

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Examples of Tax Shelters Tax-exempt bonds Capital gains Tax-deferred pension plans Tax-deferred annuities Life insurance Employee stock option plans

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. The Most Important Tax Shelters Tax-exempt bonds Capital gains Tax-deferred pension plans

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Capital Gains Are either short-term or long-term Short-term is a year or less Short-term capital gains tax rate: the investor's marginal tax rate

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Capital Gains Long-term is greater than a year Long-term capital gains tax rate: 10 percent or 20 percent Are only taxed once realized May hold an asset indefinitely and avoid capital gain taxes

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Capital Losses Offset capital gains The order of offsetting gains and losses: –first, short-term losses offset short-term gains –second, long-term losses offset long-term gains

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Capital Losses –third, net short-term losses offset long-term gains or –net long-term losses offset short- term gains

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Capital Losses –fourth, net short-term or long- term losses are used to offset income from other sources –$3,000 ($1,500) limitation –losses exceeding $3,000 ($1,500) are carried forward

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Tax Deferred Pension Plans Deductible (traditional) Individual Retirement Account (IRA) Contribution limit: $3,000 annually of earned income If not covered by a pension plan, contributions are deductible from taxable income

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Tax Deferred Pension Plans If covered by a pension plan, contributions may be deductible from taxable income (subject to earned income limitations) Assets in the account: selected by the individual Withdrawals: taxable

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Keogh Account For the self-employed Contribution limit: 25 percent of income or $35,000 (whichever is smaller) Effective contribution limit is 20 percent

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Keogh Account Contributions: deductible from taxable income Assets in the account: selected by the individual Withdrawals: taxable

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 401(k) and 403(b) Plans Plan offered by an employer Participation by employee: voluntary Contributions: deductible from taxable income

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 401(k) and 403(b) Plans Employer may match employee contributions Assets in the account: chosen from alternatives determined by employer Withdrawals: taxable

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Non-deductible Roth IRA Contribution limit: $3,000 annually Contributions: not deductible from income Assets in the account: selected by the individual Withdrawals: non-taxable

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Deductible Versus the Non-deductible IRA Importance of the tax rate –when funds contributed –when funds are withdrawn Different limitations –on income –participation in the plans –when funds have to be withdrawn

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Tax-deferred Annuities Contract for series of future payments Contract purchased today Income earned by the investment: –not currently taxable –taxable as withdrawn

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Life Insurance Difference between –face value –cash value Growth in cash value not currently taxable Death benefit: not taxable to beneficiary

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Employee Stock Option Plans Stock purchase plans: –must be offered to virtually all employees –generally the purchase price is lower than the stock's price –possible source of long-term capital gains

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Employee Stock Option Plans Incentive stock options: –granted to selected employees –purchase price: equal to current price (when issued) –possible source of long-term capital gains

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Estate Taxation Levied on value of the individual's estate Progressive rates to 50 percent Rates to decrease over time

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Estate Taxation Spousal exemption Tax credit exempts under $1 million Tax credit will increase In 2010, estate tax is scheduled to be repealed

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Corporate Federal Income Taxation Progressive Rates rise to 35 percent Phase out of lower corporate rates Most public corporations pay 35 percent

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that investors cannot expect to outperform the market consistently on a risk-adjusted basis. EMH assumptions: (1)There are a large number of competing participants in the securities markets, (2)Information is readily available and virtually costless to obtain (3)Transaction costs are small.

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Random Walk EMH hypothesis argues that a security’s price adjusts rapidly to new information and must reflect all known information concerning the firm therefore price follows a random walk A random walk essentially means that price changes are unpredictable and patterns formed are accidental

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Random Wlk The price is determined by fundamentals Including earnings, interest rates, dividend policy, and the economic environment. Changes in these variables are quickly reflected in a security’s price.

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. The Speed of Price Adjustments For securities markets to be efficient, prices must adjust rapidly. GOOG example in 2006 If an investor were able to anticipate the earnings before they were announced, that individual could avoid the price decline.

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Forms of EMH Weak form Semi strong form Strong form

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Weak form The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis Suggests that the fundamental analysis may produce superior investment results but that the technical analysis will not. Thus, studying past price behavior and other technical indicators of the market will not produce superior investment results

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Semi strong form The semi strong form of the efficient market hypothesis asserts that the current price of a stock reflects the public’s known information concerning the company. This knowledge includes both the firm’s past history and the information learned through studying a firm’s financial statements, its industry, and the general economic

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Strong form The strong form of the efficient market hypothesis asserts that the current price of a stock reflects all known (i.e., public) information and all privileged or inside information concerning the firm. Thus, even access to inside information cannot be expected to result in superior investment performance.

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Empirical Evidence for the EMH: The Anomalies While the evidence generally supports the semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis, there are exceptions. Two of the most important anomalies are the P/E effect and the small-firm effect. January effect a day-of-the-week effect The neglected-firm effect The overreaction effect

Copyright © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Implications of the EMH Active Vs Passive strategies Ultimately, you must decide for yourself the market’s degree of efficiency and whether the anomalies are grounds for particular strategies. Any investor who has a proclivity toward active investment management may see the anomalies as an opportunity. Those investors who prefer more passive investment management may see them as nothing more than interesting curiosities