THE 11-13 MARCH 2006 MID-SOUTH TORNADO OUTBREAK... WHY IT NEVER OCCURRED Dan Valle National Weather Service Memphis, TN.

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Presentation transcript:

THE MARCH 2006 MID-SOUTH TORNADO OUTBREAK... WHY IT NEVER OCCURRED Dan Valle National Weather Service Memphis, TN

Synoptic Overview

Upper Air Loop Several Shortwaves +120kt Jet Broad Upper Trough Lifting Out Phasing of Polar/Subtro pical Jets Divergence over Mid- South

Surface Features 18Z – Sat 11th NAM

Surface Features 00Z – Sun 12th NAM

Surface Features 06Z – Sun 12th NAM

Surface Features 12Z – Sun 12th NAM

Surface Features 18Z – Sun 12th NAM

Surface Features 00Z – Mon 13th NAM

Surface Features 06Z – Mon 13th NAM

850mb Winds 00-12Z 12th NAM

850mb Winds 00-12Z 13th NAM

NAM Sounding 21Z/11th MLCAPE = 3100 J/KG Lifted Index = -5.5 o C 0-3km SRH = 82 m 2 /s 2 0-6km Bulk Shear = 46kts LCL Height = 3157ft

NAM Sounding 00Z/12th MLCAPE = 2100 J/KG Lifted Index = -4.8 o C 0-3km SRH = 221m 2 /s 2 0-6km Bulk Shear = 53kts LCL Height = 1927ft

NAM Sounding 03Z/12th MLCAPE = 1500 J/KG Lifted Index = -4.0 o C 0-3km SRH = 362m 2 /s 2 0-6km Bulk Shear = 50kts LCL Height = 1271ft

NAM 0-1km EHI 00Z/12th ~ 1.5 m 2 /s 2

NAM 0-1km EHI 03Z/12th ~ 1.5 m 2 /s 2

NAM Sounding 00Z/13th MLCAPE = 2700 J/KG Lifted Index = -7.0 o C 0-3km SRH = 341m 2 /s 2 0-6km Bulk Shear = 58kts LCL Height = 1845ft

NAM Sounding 03Z/13th MLCAPE = 2700 J/KG Lifted Index = -7.0 o C 0-3km SRH = 414m 2 /s 2 0-6km Bulk Shear = 57kts LCL Height = 1291ft

NAM 0-1km EHI 00Z/13th ~ 4.0 m 2 /s 2

NAM 0-1km EHI 03Z/13th ~ 4.5 m 2 /s 2

SPC’s Forecast

How Bad Was It?

Storm Reports for March 11th

Storm Reports for March 12th

Storm Reports for March 13th

What went wrong?

00Z 12th NAMObserved (LZK)

Surface Features 00Z/12 th and 06Z/12 th GFS

Radar Echos 00Z/12 th and 06Z/12 th GFS

Thanks Jason Beaman – NWS Memphis Jonathan Howell – NWS Memphis Gerry Rigdon – NWS Memphis

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