Inductive reasoning problems … … … … ?? ?? 1210 Need to break out of mental set

AJ47 EVEN  CONSISTENT ODD  INCONSISTENT EVEN  INDETERMINATE ODD  INDETERMINATE VOWEL  INDETERMINATE CONSONANT  INDETERMINATE VOWEL  INCONSISTENT CONSONANT  CONSISTENT Most people pick these two Confirmation Bias

Estimating Probabilities Are you more likely to die from: –all accidents (55,000) or strokes (102,000)? –electrocution (500) or asthma (920)? –motor vehicle accidents (27,000) or cancer of the digestive system (46,400)? –lightning (52) or appendicitis (440)? –homicide (9200) or diabetes (19,000)? Numbers indicate deaths per 100 million people Availability Bias

Estimating Probabilities Carol is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. What is the probability that Carol is a feminist bank teller? What is the probability that Carol is a bank teller? Representativeness

A man walks into a bar… A man who wanted a drink walked into a bar. Before he could say a word he was knocked unconscious. Why? Need to break out of mental set

How Can You… You are alone in a room with two strings hanging from the ceiling. The strings are two far apart for you to grasp them both simultaneously. Your job is to tie the two strings together. Your only tool is a pair of pliers. How can you accomplish the job? Functional Fixedness