Forecasting Chapter 6 7E M ANAGERIAL E CONOMICS F U N D A M E N T A L S O F © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning M A R K H I R S C H E Y PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–2 Time-Series Characteristics: Secular Trend and Cyclical Variation in Women’s Clothing Sales Figure 6.1a

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–3 Time-Series Characteristics: Seasonal Pattern and Random Fluctuations Figure 6.1b

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–4 Microsoft Corp. Sales Revenue, 1984–2001 Figure 6.2

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–5 Gross Domestic Product, 1959–Present Figure 6.3

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–6 Composite Indexes of 10 Leading, Four Coincident, and Seven Lagging Indicators ( ) Figure 6.4 Source: The Conference Board Web site at

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–7 The National Bureau of Economic Research Web Site Is a Treasure Trove of Forecast Information Figure 6.5

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–8 Resources for Economists on the Internet Is a Valuable Forecasting Resource Figure 6.6

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–9 Barron’s Publishes Timely Information on Economic Indicators Figure 6.7

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–10 Nine Common Trends in Economic Time Series Can Be Forecast by Using Exponen- tial Smoothing Methods Figure 6.8

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–11 The Appropriate Forecast Technique Tends to Vary over the Life Cycle of a Product Figure 6.9

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–12 Gross Domestic Product 1966–2000 Figure ST6.1

Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–13 Multiple Regression Figure ST6.2