Addressing Cost Estimates and Cost Increases Project Cost Task Force February 18, 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

Addressing Cost Estimates and Cost Increases Project Cost Task Force February 18, 2011

3 Regional State Committee Motions MOTION 1: RSC recommends that SPP review what is the best manner to address significant cost increases and/or overruns of transmission projects that are regionally funded. MOTION 2: RSC recommends that SPP review the SPP review the Novation Process and report to the RSC by April MOTION 3: RSC recommends that SPP consider establishing design and construction standards for transmission projects at 200 kV and above that are regionally funded. MOTION 4: SPP evaluate how cost estimates are established for transmission projects before Cost Benefit Analysis are performed. MOTION 5: CAWG to study various methods on how costs that exceed some standard can be addressed with different cost allocation mechanisms and recommend strategies to RSC. 3

Activities since October RSC meeting BOD referred Motions to the SPC (Oct) Staff developed white papers Reviewed what other entities are doing Presented white papers to SPC (Dec) MOPC formed a Project Cost Task Force to expand the Staff white papers and agree to details (Jan) 4

5 Project Cost Task Force (PCTF) Further develop whitepapers for RSC Motions 1 and 4 – Develop method for creating project cost estimates –Help ensure rigorous evaluation of cost estimate variances –The group consists of 10 members from different entities with experience in the following sectors:  Construction cost estimation/control, Rate-making, Project management 5

6 Members of Project Cost Task Force (PCTF) Terri Gallup, Chairman (American Electric Power) Tom Hesterman (Sunflower Electric Power Corp.) Al Ackland (Kansas City Power & Light Company) Peter Day (Oklahoma Gas and Electric Co.) Sam McGarrah (Empire District Electric Company) Brian Slocum (ITC Great Plains, LLC) Tom Littleton (Oklahoma Municipal Power Authority) Ray Harold (Midwest Energy) Dave Kimball (Nebraska Public Power District) Jason Fortik (Lincoln Electric System) 6

Strategic Planning Task Force Meeting (Feb) SPC task force generally supportive of the direction of whitepaper Provided Guidance on Tracking/Cost Estimates – PCTF should define what needs to be included in each level of estimate (i.e., everything that the TO needs to provide to SPP and everything that SPP is to provide to each TO to develop consistent estimates) – PCTF should establish the bandwidth percentages at each estimate level 7

Strategic Planning Task Force Meeting Form Group to provided Guidance on projects with estimates outside a bandwidth (Project Cost Working Group) – These recommendations can include restudies, though the task force did not identify automatic triggers – These recommendations would follow SPP’s existing processes for approval to the Board – These recommendations should not include reallocation of the costs related to the variance – These recommendations could include a revocation of the NTC by the BOD 8

9 Today’s Goals Further develop whitepapers for RSC Motions 1 and 4 – Start with SPP’s strawman document – Refine whitepaper for Motion 4: Cost Estimate Standard – Refine whitepaper for Motion 1: Cost Variances 9

Motion 4: Cost Estimate Standard

11 NTC Issued UNCERTAINTY Highest None Conceptual Estimate Based on historical costs Rough straight line path – no detail Study Estimate Rough measure of Distance Based on Historical Costs More refined review provided to SPP Design Estimate Detailed alternatives Firm Routing Known Environmental Issues Construction Estimate All Labor, Material, Equipment, Contingencies Actual Cost Estimating Before and After NTC – Motion 4 NTC issued ITP20 ITP10 ITPNT Construction Design Build the project

12 Project Cost Estimating Process (4 Stages) 12

13 Motion 4: Cost Estimate Standard 13 Estimate Name Stage Level of Project Definition End Usage Precision and Range Suggested Contingency Conceptual10% to 10% Concept screening for ITP20/ITP10 -50% to + 100%30% to 50% Study210% to 40% Study of feasibility and plan development for ITP10/ITPNT -30% to +50%15% to 30% NTC Project Estimate 3-20% to +20% Design440% to 70% Construction design after NTC issued -20% to +20%10% to 20% Construction570% to 100% Build the project -10% to +15%5% to 10%

14 Standardized Cost Estimate Application 14

Motion 1: Cost Variances

Staff Proposed Process Improvements – Motion 1 Baseline cost estimate used at issuance of NTC –Detailed estimate required Baseline estimate utilized to compare to actual cost Independent group (PCWG) formed to inquire into the reasonableness of any variance outside a predetermined bandwidth Determination if the project is still feasible PCWG’s recommendation will be presented to TWG, MOPC, RSC and BOD for quarterly review 16

17 Project Cost Working Group (PCWG) Charter Project Cost Working Group should: –Provide monthly review of regional projects with estimated costs outside threshold –Recommend next steps of a project to MOPC and ultimately to the BOD –PCWG should not recommend allocation of overages but instead issue recommendation for revocation of the NTC or continuance of project –Reset project tracking estimate baselines for projects once they have been reviewed when approapriate –Provide quarterly report to MOPC

PCWG Review Cycle 18

19 Katherine Prewitt Director, Planning