I. Testing Theories and Hypotheses 이론및 가설검증 in Micro and in Macro Sociology A. Three Criteria of Causal Explanations 인과관계의 3 기준 B. Experimental Research C. Field Research

What does theory do? Description 기술. Gives us the conceptual tools to “see” social reality more fully. Explanation 설명. Most sociological theory attempts to identify causal interrelationships Independent Variable 독립변수 Dependent Variable 종속변수

Criteria of Causation 1) Time Order 시간순서 independent variable must be an antecedent variable 2) Correlation 상관관계 a necessary but not sufficient condition 3) Non-spuriousness 무허위관계 ruling out alternative explanations

Time Order is Not Always Obvious Web Use Tolerance 관용 A finding from the 2000 General Social Survey But which comes first? And is there a causal relationship?

Measuring Correlations Measures of correlation measure the strength of the association of two or more variables Correlation coefficients vary from – 1.0 to +1.0 They must be examined for statistical significance Positive and negative correlations can both indicate causal relations But correlation does not always indicate causation

Nonspuriousness: Is the correlation “spurious 허위적 ”? Variable A Variable B is correlated with A Third Variable is not causally related to

What is “ spurious ” about a spurious correlation is not the correlation. The correlation is real. It is the causal interpretation which is spurious.

Some Spurious Correlations Storks( 어린애를가져다준다는 황새 ) and birth rates Storks 황새 High Birth Rates Rural Areas X

Some Spurious Correlations Large Hands Shoplifting Gender hand size and shoplifting X

Some Spurious Correlations Marijuana Use Good health Youth marijuana use and health X

Do music lessons make better students?

Music Lessons High SAT Scores What variables might explain the relationship? ? Is this correlation spurious?

Web Use Tolerance What variables might explain this relationship? ? Is this correlation spurious?

Experimental Research: The Asch Experiment Some Key Terms experimental variable randomization test of significance

Asch ’ s Findings A substantial proportion of subjects conformed to the group consensus But a significant proportion (25%) did not conform no matter what It did not take a large minority to increase resistance to group pressure to conform

Experimental Research: What are its strengths and limitations? Advantage: can manipulate the relevant variables Disadvantage: can ’ t study most things this way. Most sociological research uses nonexperimental research design

Field Research (Participant Observation) What are its strengths? Provides a much greater range of data--a much greater “ feel ” for the subject Only way to find out many things Researcher can approach subjects without preconceptions Can adjust research strategy along the way

Field Research (Participant Observation) What are its limitations? Usually a sample of one Researcher ’ s perceptions may be distorted by bias Hawthorne effect the importance of replication

Lofland and Stark Study What was the dependent variable? ? What did Lofland and Stark conclude was the major independent variable? ? conversion as an act of conformity

Why is Heaven ’ s Gate the “ exception that proves the rule? ” (1997 group suicide of 39 members) the principle of dense origins they didn ’ t recruit through dense social networks in 22 years the group hardly grew at all