POPULATION PYRAMIDS TYPES OF PYRAMIDS AND CASE STUDY OF CHINA

Categories of Population Pyramids Demographers may categorize population pyramids into three groups based on shape. The three groups/shapes are: – Expansive – Stable/Stationary – Contracting/Constrictive

EXPANSIVE POPULATION PYRAMIDS

Expansive Population Pyramids There are two types of expansive pyramids. Both types share common characteristics: – Wide/Broad base – Narrow top Thus, both will show larger numbers or percentages of the population in the younger age groups

Expansive Population Pyramids Wide/Broad Base The wide base indicates a high birth rate. The broader the base, the higher the birth rate. A broad base also shows that there are more young people in the population. Narrow Top The narrow top indicates a high death rate and lower life expectancy. The narrower and lower the top, the higher the death rate and the lower is the life expectancy. A narrow top also shows that there are fewer older people in the population.

Expansive Population Pyramids 1 The first type (sub-type) of expansive pyramid may be called early expanding. Apart from the wide base, this pyramid is characterised by concave sides caused by a rapid fall in each upward age group. The concave sides are caused by high death rates (which also results in a narrow top.) Populations in Stage 1 of the DTM will show such a pyramid (few countries today fall into this category)

Population Pyramids- Early Expanding Nigeria, 2005

Population Pyramids - Early Expanding Scotland, 1861

Population Pyramids - Early Expanding

Expansive Population Pyramids - 2 The second type (sub-type) of expansive pyramid may be called expanding. Apart from the wide base, it is characterised by sloping sides. These are not concave, but are straighter and may even be slightly convex around the youth cohorts (0 – 14). The straighter sides and convex “youth bulge” are both caused by falling death rates characteristic of countries within Stage 2 of the DTM.

Expansive Population Pyramids - 2 Here's an example of an expanding population pyramid showing the population of Japan in 1950: Notice how there are fewer males than females as the population ages. This type of pyramid is quite typical of many European nations, the United States, Canada and Australia after the Second World War and, as stated above, is an expanding population pyramid.

REMEMBER! Concave sides indicate a high death rate. Straighter or convex sides show a lower death rate. A very narrow top indicates low life expectancy, suggesting that poor medical care and nutritional deficiencies may be issues. A very wide base indicates a rapidly expanding population which, in turn, is generally indicative of a lower standard of living where there is limited access to birth control.

REMEMBER ! In this type of pyramid there are more children than there are males and females in the reproductive age groups meaning that the population is more than replacing itself over time. These types of pyramids are usually found in populations with very large fertility rates and lower than average life expectancies. The age-sex distributions of many Third World countries would probably display expansive population pyramids.

STABLE POPULATION PYRAMIDS

Stable Population Pyramids The second type of pyramid is the stable or stationary population pyramid. The base of the population pyramid is the same width as the age range where reproduction is most likely to take place. This is generally indicative of a higher standard of living where there is ready access to birth control. The relatively wide and high top to the pyramid indicates that there is a low death rate due to good nutrition throughout life and access to good medical care.

CONTRACTING POPULATION PYRAMIDS

Contracting Population Pyramids The third type of pyramid is a contracting or constrictive population pyramid. These pyramids have a narrower base than the age range where reproduction is most likely to take place, and don't really resemble a pyramid at all. Notice how the population of the age groups between 0 and 14 years of age are much narrower than those of the reproductive age groups between 15 and 44 years of age. In these cases, the population is not replacing itself; very low birth rates mean that the population is likely to drop in the future. These population distributions are usually found in developed nations.

Contracting Population Pyramids As time progresses, this population will shrink because Japan faces three issues: – a very low birthrate, – a long lifespan and – a very low immigration rate.

Contracting Population Pyramids Here is the population pyramid showing the projected population groups for Japan in the year 2050: Notice how there are many more senior citizens (39.6 percent of the total population) than there are young children under the age of 15 (8.6 percent of the population).

VARIATIONS IN SHAPES POPULATION PYRAMIDS

Variations in Shapes Irregularities in the sides of a population pyramid can be indicative of various issues. Bumps in the side can indicate sudden growth in the population. As shown in this example of France, the circled bump accompanying the birth of baby boomers after World War II travels up the pyramid with time from the year 1970 to the year 1985.

Asymmetrical Shapes Population pyramids show the distribution of males versus females. Therefore, one can see how the distribution of the two genders changes with age. In the 2050 chart for Japan, note that the pyramid is asymmetrical at the top. In this case, the asymmetry results from the fact that there are many more females over 80 years of age than there are males. This too seems to be typical of developed nations.

CASE STUDY – CHINA: THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT POLICY ON POPULATION STRUCTURE POPULATION PYRAMIDS

Reasons for the Policy China instituted a one child policy in This policy was brought about because of the massive population growth that China experienced during the 1960s and 1970s. By 1963, the average Chinese woman had given birth to 7.5 children. While that rate had dropped to 2.7 births per mother by 1979, there was still great concern about the future security of the nation’s food supply. With 20 percent of the world's population and only 7 percent of the world's arable land, the government instituted a policy that would ensure that the country would be able to feed its own people.

China’s Population Structure Here is what the population pyramid for China looked like in 1970 before the one child policy was adopted: This is a typical population pyramid for an expanding population. Narrowing through the ages where reproduction is most likely to take place. Notice the nice broad base

End of the Policy The policy was ended in 2015 after over 30 years of requiring Chinese couples to have only one child; statistically there are around 150 million families with only one child (⅔ of all Chinese couples). China claims that their one child policy has averted roughly 400 million births.

Effects of the Policy – Reduced Fertility China's country-wide fertility rate dropped to well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman; decreasing to an estimated 1.5 children per woman and in developed urban areas, to an average of one child per woman.

Effects of the Policy – Reduced Fertility To put this number into perspective, the country of Japan - projected to have a massive drop in population over the next 40 years - has the world's fifth lowest total fertility rate at 1.2 children per woman. Macau (a special administrative region of China) has the world's lowest fertility rate at 0.91 children per woman.

Effects of the Policy – Changing Sex Ratio The sex ratio among children at birth has changed from 108 boys for every 100 girls in 1980 to 120 boys for every 100 girls today resulting in 20 to 30 million excess males.

Effects of the Policy – Ageing Population The number of elderly Chinese aged 65 and older stood at 144 million in 2007 and is expected to rise to 391 million by 2035 when seniors will comprise 25 percent of the total population. The doubling of the number of people over the age of 65 will take only 27 years, much faster than the doubling of the number of seniors in the United States.

Effects of the Policy – Ageing Population Single child families will have to rely on their sole child to provide for their parents as they age. This will place a social and economic burden on the next generation as fewer of them will be required to fund the growing pension, health care and social welfare benefits of an increasingly aging population.

Effects of the Policy – Population Pyramid Here is what the population pyramid for China is projected to look like in 2050: The narrowing from ages 0 to 19 years. This is a typical population pyramid for a contracting population. Notice the following: The relatively wide top The narrow base

Other Effects of the Policy Reduced Primary Enrolment: – Demographic changes have already been noted at the elementary school level; in 1995, there were 25.3 million new students enrolled in school. By 2008, that number had dropped by one-third to 16.7 million. Industrial Labour Shortages: – China is on the cusp of experiencing a decline in new entrants into its labour force. The days of the seemingly endless supply of young and cheap Chinese labour is drawing to a close. The number of young labourers between the ages of 20 and 29 has already dropped by 14% in the past 10 years and is expected to drop by an additional 17% in the next 20 years.

Other Effects of the Policy Not only will China's demographic changes have a marked impact on China, it will have a marked impact on the world's economy. Most nations in the world have regarded China as the world's manufacturer; should a shortage of labour occur, it will definitely impact the price of labour resulting in an impact on prices of goods around the world.

Other Effects of the Policy While the rest of the world will be adjusting to a changing demography as baby boomers reach their senior years over the next 2 decades, the impact on the world's economy of that demographic change will be relatively minor compared to the massive impact felt when China's massive population reaches the same point.

References usa.com/level_4_data/hum/011_7a.htm usa.com/level_4_data/hum/011_7a.htm Brookings Institute: China's One Child Policy at 30 by Feng WangChina's One Child Policy at 30 Brookings Institute: China's Population Destiny: The Looming Crisis by Feng WangChina's Population Destiny: The Looming Crisis