The European Mobile Industry – A Case for Consolidation? Wolfgang Kopf, LL.M. Executive Vice President T-Mobile International AG & Co. KG Transatlantic.

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Presentation transcript:

The European Mobile Industry – A Case for Consolidation? Wolfgang Kopf, LL.M. Executive Vice President T-Mobile International AG & Co. KG Transatlantic Dialogue Montpellier, France November 22, 2005

Page 2 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International  About T-Mobile  European Mobile Markets  US Mobile Markets  Key difference between European and US Mobile Markets  Main hurdles for Consolidation in Europe Agenda

Page 3 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International  T-Mobile International AG & Co. KG was established in December 1999 and is one of the largest mobile communications operators worldwide (3rd place in terms of Revenues, 4th place in terms of subscribers)  T-Mobile International was the first seamless transatlantic mobile network operator and is still the only one  DT Group holds direct or indirect investments in mobile communications companies in 15 countries with more than 83 million subscribers  Net revenue of T-Mobile International was 25,0 billion Euros in 2004 (eoy) About T-Mobile

Page 4 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International Our Footprint  T-Mobile NL (100%)  No. 3 player  T-Mobile UK (100%)  No. 1 Player (w/ Virgin Mobile)  T-Mobile AT (100 %)  No. 2 player  T-Mobile US (100%)  No. 4 Player *  T-Mobile D (100 %)  No. 1 Player  T-Mobile CZ (56.0%)  No. 1 player T-Mobile Hungary (59.2 %)** No. 1 Player PTC (Poland, 49.0%) No. 1 Player T-Mobile Croatia (51.0 %)** No. 1 Player Monet (Montenegro, 45.5%)** No. 2 Player T-Mobile Slovakia (51.0 %)** No. 2 Player Mobimak (Macedonia, 30.2%)** No. 1 Player Eronet (Bosnia, 25.0%)** No. 3 Player Not T-Mobile branded T-Mobile branded Notes: Ranking based on subscribers number (status as of Q2/2005). Percentage of stakes in brackets. * No. 4 player after closing of Sprint / Nextel merger ** Pro rata as (local) fixed line is holding the shares in the local mobile operation

Page 5 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International T-Mobile US  Established under the name of VoiceStream in 1994; in July 2002, the company became T-Mobile US  Subsidiary of T-Mobile International (100%)  More than 20.0 million subscribers  Market share 10%  US-Penetration rate 66 %  T-Mobile US has the largest GSM network in the USA  T-Mobile US is the largest Wi-Fi provider in the USA  Four awards by J.D. Power and Associates in 2004, among them “Highest Overall Satisfaction Among Wireless Telephone Users”, and already two further awards in 2005, among them “Highest Overall Business Customer Satisfaction”

Page 6 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International EU25 Communications Market Volumes EU25 communications markets growing faster than GDP. Mobile and fixed data services main growth drivers. Fixed voice service revenues steadily declining. EU25 Communications Market Volumes (€ bn) Source: EU Commission (10th Communications report) Mobile Services Fixed Voice Services Fixed Data Services Cable TV Services 1.7%1.1%0.9%2.4% EU25 GDP growth 38.6% 41.4% 32.5% 44.1%... % = share at total market volume 15.1% 18.3% 5.3%6.7%3.9%4.9% Yearly growth CAGR 7.6% --0.7% 12.3% 5.3%

Page 7 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International Mobile Subscribers (SIM cards) and Penetration in EU 15 & EU 25 (in m) Subscriber EU 15 Subscriber EU 25 Sources: Mobile Communications/Baskerville, Merrill Lynch (April/September 2005), Eurostat, own calculations Note: Total EU25 population of 458m by end of 2004, EU15 with 384m population. End of year penetration rate. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth rate; EU = Europe 63%75%79%86% 94% EU15 91% Population penetration EU15/EU25 Mobile Subscriber Development European mobile markets approaching saturation. Addressable market penetration already higher than 100%. Prepaid main growth driver CAGR 00-04: 11% (EU15) Prepaid penetration 96% 94% 62%63% 2Q 2005 EU25

Page 8 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International European Mobile Competition – Key EU25 countries Fierce Competition but no Consolidation yet. Sources: EU Commission (10th Communications report), Merrill Lynch (September 2005), own analysis MVNO = Mobile Virtual Network Operator ; SIM = Subscriber Identity Module Mobile Network operators & service providers / MVNOs / mobile brands Key EU25 countries – 2Q 2005 Service providers / MVNO / mobile brands Mobile network operators with GSM and/or UMTS licenses 95% Mobile penetration 2Q 2005 (SIM cards as of population) 108%67%109%103%109%114% 99% 75%102%100%90%88%111%106%103%

Page 9 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International US Mobile Subscriber Market Development US market with considerable subscriber growth. 66% population penetration reached by end of June Source: CTIA, own estimates Total US Mobile Subscriber (in m) Key subscriber growth drivers  Introduction of digital network technologies (TDMA, GSM & CDMA in 1994/95)  Better handset selection (especially related with introduction of GSM & CDMA)  Attractive price plans (e.g. minute buckets, prepaid tariffs, family tariff plans)  Introduction of national roaming  Improved network quality & coverage, especially in-house and in rural areas  Mobile data services (e.g. SMS, corporate applications used via data cards), mostly since 2002 CAGR 95-04: 20.6 % + 6.7% 66 % Penetration

Page 10 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International US Mobile Competition Market already consolidated. 100% = 194,4m subs (+14.7% yoy) US Subscriber Market Shares 2Q 2005 Total US Subscribers 2Q 2005 (in m) Source: CTIA, reported company data, own calculations. Note: Sprint figures without wholesale & affiliates (included in others). Sprint / Nextel merger closed in August 2005 yoy = year on year ; BTA = Basic Trading Areas (see page 20 for overview) Key competition characteristics  After consolidation, four (from initially six) national operators controlling about 79% of total US subscriber base  Remaining 21% controlled by affiliates of national operators (e.g. Sprint / Nextel affiliates), regional/local players (e.g. Alltel, US Cellular, Cincinnati Bell) and MVNOs/resellers (e.g. Virgin Mobile, Boost Mobile, TracFone)

Page 11 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International Key differences between Europe & USA Six key differences  Market structure / Regulatory Characteristics  Network technologies installed / Coverage  Competition level  Subscriber growth / penetration development  Pricing schemes  Usage behavior (voice, data)

Page 12 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International  De facto spectrum cap  Licensing areas determine the relevant geographic market  New EU Merger Rules and SIEC Test  No clear division of jurisdiction among competent authorities  Culture? Main hurdles for Consolidation in Europe

Page 13 Wolfgang Kopf, T-Mobile International Thank you for your attention. Wolfgang Kopf, LL.M. Executive Vice President Public & Regulatory Affairs T-Mobile International AG & Co. KG Landgrabenweg 151, D Bonn, Germany Mail: