California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts November 24, 2015 Aniss Bahreinian Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division 1

California Energy Commission Overview Introduction Overview of demand cases & Input Scenarios Transportation Electrification Plug-in Electric Vehicles (Light Duty) 2

California Energy Commission Transportation Energy Demand: –Accounts for all energy used for movement of people and goods, by fuel type, on California roads and rail system. Off-Road: –Accounts for diesel and gasoline used in off-road applications of moving or stationary equipment in different sectors of the economy. TCU: –Accounts for stationary use of electricity and natural gas in Transportation, Communication, and Utility (TCU) sectors, such as shore power, ground power at airports, and others. Commercial, Industrial, Agricultural (3 models): –Accounts for electricity use of moving equipment such as forklifts and tractors. Residential: –Accounts for electricity use of moving equipment e.g. boats 3 Energy Demand Forecasting Models

California Energy Commission 6 Demand Cases Demand Cases Input Scenarios Income/ Population Fuel PricesLDV Liquid Fuels NG, Electric, Hydrogen PreferenceVehicle Price Common Demand Cases High Energy Demand HLL High for ZEV (Increasing over Time) Transition 2030 Low Energy Demand LHH Constant (2013 Survey) H Mid Energy Demand MMMHigh for ZEVTransition 2050 Transportation- Specific Demand Cases High Petroleum Demand HLH Constant (2013 Survey) H Low Petroleum Demand LHL High for ZEV (Increasing over Time) Transition 2030 High Alternative Fuel Demand HHLHigh for ZEV (Increasing over Time) Transition

California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification 5

California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification Typically refers to the use of electricity in on-road and off-road movement of people and goods. On-road (includes rail) Light duty vehicles (LDV) for personal transportation Medium/heavy duty vehicles used in short distance goods movement and service trucks. Long distance fixed route movements (Post-Processed):  High Speed Rail  Electrified Commute Rail Short distance fixed route movements:  Light Rail for Urban Transit  Catenary buses and trucks (currently only for demonstration) Off-road Movements ( Forklift, vehicles used inside airports, etc) Stationary (i dled trucks and ships at truck stops, ports ) 6

California Energy Commission Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV): Prominent in Electrification Includes Battery Electric vehicles (BEV and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) –Also refers to Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEV), but staff forecasts NEVs separately. Most PEV scenario discussions focus on Light Duty Vehicles (excluding NEVs) Staff uses behavioral models to forecast PEV demand, along with all other fuels and LDVs. 7

California Energy Commission Key Inputs Driving PEV Demand (Same for All LDVs) Vehicle Prices Fuel Prices Fuel Economy Range (more sensitive for PEVs) Incentives Consumer Preferences Choices of Vehicle Class and Models 8

California Energy Commission There are three scenarios for each of the following vehicle attributes: Vehicle Price Makes and Models Range (2 input scenarios) Consumer preferences (2 input scenarios) Input scenarios are more favorable to ZEV vehicles, to ensure better ZEV compliance in the mid and high energy demand cases. 9 What Inputs Are Different in the Revised PEV Forecast?

California Energy Commission Zero Emission Vehicles in the Three Common Energy Demand Cases High Energy Demand: –High income and population, low energy prices, high ZEV preferences, ZEV prices converging with gasoline in Mid Energy Demand: –Mid income, population, and energy prices, High ZEV Preferences, ZEV prices converging with gasoline in Low Energy Demand: –Low income & population, High energy prices, Low ZEV Preferences, ZEV price increments over gasoline vehicles constant at 2014 levels. 10

California Energy Commission Percent* of Total LDV Sales: Increasing Preferences for PEVs? Fuel/Technology Type Gasoline85.08%80.55%78.27%75.98%78.66% Ethanol8.09%11.84%12.41%12.06%9.83% Hybrid5.13%4.83%6.29%7.36%6.03% Diesel1.66%2.09%1.85%1.77%2.41% Plug-in hybrid0.00%0.14%0.81%1.59%1.78% Electric0.00%0.47%0.28%1.21%1.25% Natural gas0.04%0.09% 0.03%0.04% Hydrogen0.00% New Vehicle Sales** 1,009, ,419, ,774, ,976, ,130, * Percent of same model year sales of same calendar year total new vehicle sales, e.g models years sold new in 2013 calendar year. ** New Vehicle sales is the sum of all model years sold new in the calendar year, e.g. 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 model years sold new in 2010 calendar year.

California Energy Commission Retail Price Equivalents Required for Transition to AFVs: Passenger Cars, High Volume, Fully Learned 12 Source:

California Energy Commission High Energy Demand Case: ZEV Vehicle Price Converge to Gasoline Vehicle Prices in 2030, in $

California Energy Commission Mid Energy Demand Case: ZEV Vehicle Price Converge to Gasoline Vehicle Prices in 2050, 2013$ 14

California Energy Commission Low Energy Demand Case: Constant ZEV Vehicle Price Increments vs. Gasoline 15

California Energy Commission Vehicle Class Choices: ZEV vs Gasoline (Forecast) Vehicle ClassGasolinePHEVElectricFuel Cell Subcompact Compact Midsize Large Sport Cross Utility - Small Cross Utility - Small Truck Cross Utility - Midsize Sports Utility - Compact Sports Utility - Midsize Sports Utility - Large Sports Utility - Heavy (8,500-10, Van - Compact Van - Large Van – Heavy (8,500-10,000) Pickup - Compact Pickup - Standard Pickup - Heavy (8,500-10,000)

California Energy Commission Air Resources Board’s ZEV Most Likely Scenario: Cumulative Sales 17 Source: ARB

California Energy Commission Created ZEV based scenarios: ZEV Compliance: Assuming a 50/50 split between PEVs and fuel cell vehicles. ZEV Program “Most Likely Compliance” Scenario ZEV Program “Most Likely Compliance” Scenario x 3 Source: ICF, California Transportation Electrification Assessment, September Transportation Electrification Assessment (TEA) Study

California Energy Commission PEV Demand Forecast: Number of On-Road Vehicles 19

California Energy Commission Mass Transit & Freight Short Distance: –Direct Electric Light Rail Electrified Rail Trolley Busses –Electric Transit/School Busses –EV Trucks (Class 4-6) Long Distance: High Speed Rail; Direct Electric: Catenary Truck (Demo only now); 20

California Energy Commission Questions? Comments? Aniss Bahreinian Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division /