Russia’s Recent Fertility Increase – Why it Occurred and Can it be Sustained? Vladimir Archangelskiy, Julia Zinkina, Andrey Korotayev.

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Presentation transcript:

Russia’s Recent Fertility Increase – Why it Occurred and Can it be Sustained? Vladimir Archangelskiy, Julia Zinkina, Andrey Korotayev

Total fertility rate, births per woman,

Monthly absolute number of births in Russia, January 2001 to June 2013

Maternity capital, unintended pregnancies, and abortions abortions vs live births in 2006 (106:100) in 2007 the abortions decreased by , while live births increased by about (92:100)

TFR dynamics according to birth order, 2006–2012, 35 regions of Russia Year1 st births2 nd births3 rd births4 th births 5 th and higher order births ,7660,4210,1060,0290, ,7380,4030,0990,0270, ,7480,4040,0980,0260, ,7470,4750,1250,0320, ,7740,5110,1420,0360, ,7880,5320,1440,0370, ,7710,5610,1520,0380, ,7690,5710,1600,0390, ,8020,6200,1820,0440,023

Median age of the mother at 1 st, 2 nd, and 3 rd births, years, 35 regions of Russia, 2006 – 2012 Year Median age of the mother at 1 st birth Median age of the mother at 2 nd birth Median age of the mother at 3 rd birth ,9328,7331, ,0528,8631, ,1328,9631, ,2529,0731, ,3729,2431, ,5829,3631, ,8229,4432, ,9129,5132, ,0029,5132,27

Population perception of maternity capital effect Gave birth to a child which was previously being postponed Had a birth which they could not afford without the newly introduced family policy measures Family and Fertility Survey (2009). “Was your decision on having a child influenced by the fact that additional measures of state support for families with children started being realized?” 15,3% females9,7% females Selective Observation on the Reproductive Plans of the Population “Did the fact that additional measures of state support for families with children started being realized help you to make a decision on having a child?” 21.8% of males 23.4% of females 9.5% of males 9.8% of females

Thank you for attention!