Yuqing Wang Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii The 65 th IHC, February 28-March 3, 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

Yuqing Wang Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii The 65 th IHC, February 28-March 3, 2011

Overall Goal of the Project To evaluate and improve the cloud and precipitation physics used in the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model developed in the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of NOAA, achieving improved prediction of hurricane structure and intensity, including the size, by the HWRF model at NCEP/EMC.

Objectives  To diagnose the discrepancies of the current cloud and precipitation physics and the interaction between grid-scale moist processes and subgrid-scale convection in HWRF and understand how they affect hurricane intensity and structure;  To improve the representation of the cloud and precipitation physics in HWRF and evaluate the performance of the modified schemes through model intercomparison between HWRF and TCM4;  To test and tune the modifications in the experimental prediction mode and to evaluate their overall improvements in predicting hurricane structure and intensity.

Work Completed Cloud microphysics Cumulus parameterization in the mother domain Effect of dynamical core Sensitivity to initial radial wind profile Some highlights

Cloud microphysics scheme Ferrier scheme in HWRF 5-category scheme in TCM4

Cumulus parameterization in the mother domain

Intercomparison of two WRF dynamical cores

NMM ARW

Intercomparison of two WRF dynamical cores

Azimuthal mean diabatic heating

Sensitivity to initial radial wind profile

Summary Cloud microphysics scheme in HWRF seems not to cause the size increase in the prediction; Cumulus parameterization is a candidate; Initial structure of the model vortex is likely the major contributor to the rapid size increase; Dynamical core affects the cloud microphysics and heating distribution and thus the vertical structure and intensity of the storm; Evaluation will be extended to the new CP and new initialization scheme in HWRF model.