MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture.

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MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 1 Stock Market Cycles Schematic model intended to Indicate trend and cyclical rhythm time frames and not absolute levels of price magnitude Accumulation Zone Distribution Zone Long-Term Trend Structure Short-Term Trend Structure Intermediate-Term Trend Structure Schematic model intended to Indicate trend and cyclical rhythm time frames and not absolute levels of price magnitude Accumulation Zone Distribution Zone Long-Term Trend Structure Short-Term Trend Structure Intermediate-Term Trend Structure

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 2 The Amplitude of a Wave

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 3 The Period of a Wave

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 4 The Phase Difference Between 2 Waves

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 5 The Summation of 2 Waves

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 6 Lacking Harmonicity

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 7 Lacking Synchonicity

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 8 Displaying Both Harmonicity & Synchonicity

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 9 DJIA Quarterly Hi-Lo, illustrating 4-4 /1/2 Year Cycle. Avg. Duration: Last 8 cycles is 49.8 months. Avg. Bull Phase Skew is 35.4 months; Avg. Bear Phase Skew is 14.4 months. Kitchin Wave

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 10 Edward Dewey 9.2-Year Cycle in Stock Prices

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 11 Kondratieff’s Long Wave

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 12 Schumpeter’s Model – The 19th Century Business Model

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 13 Sun Spots

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 14 Structure of an Ideal Elliott Wave

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 15 Seasonal Cycles November Soybeans (CBOT) 15-Year Seasonal ( )

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2007 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © All rights are reserved. 16 Average month-to-month % change in S&P 500 (based on monthly closing prices) Seasonal Cycles – Market Performance Each Month of the Year 46-1/3 Years (January April 1996)