1 Overview of Scotland’s Productive Capacity Alan Renwick and Andrew Midgley

2 Gross Scottish Agricultural Output 2007 Source: RERAD

3 Capacity constrained by geography Census 2008

4 Ten Year Trend in Land-use Source RERAD Agricultural Statistics

5 Livestock Ten year Trend Source RERAD Agricultural Statistics

6 Spatial variation in decline Source: Retreat from the Hills – Rural Policy Centre (2008)

7 Capacity change? In terms of area and livestock numbers Scotland’s agricultural sector has declined quite markedly in last 10 years – Is this a change in capacity? Of course need to take account of changes in yield (t/ha, kg meat etc) Fewer higher yielding animals could offset decline –True in dairy –Less true in sheep, beef Is capability to produce still there?

8 Some Issues As we are discussing food security increasing capacity in Scotland raises some interesting questions –Capacity to produce food for consumption within Scotland or elsewhere? –Capacity for production of food or of drink? –What are the trade-offs?

9 Capacity, population and trade We already export significant proportions of our produce So are we actually over producing for the size of our population? We may have the physical capacity to produce more, but whether or not we should depends on the scale being considered –Scotland –UK –EU –World

10 Increasing capacity? Capacity of processors Capacity of supply chain Limited processing capacity in Scotland

11 Quantity and Quality Limited by climate and soil Vast majority into Distilling Import most of ¼m tonnes for milling Much Scope to change? Food or Drink? Source: DTZ

12 Feed Use, Malting, Exporter of feed, limited scope for malt exports importance of livestock sector Source: DTZ Destination of Barley

13 Would increasing capacity make Scotland more food secure? Scotland’s agricultural sector heavily dependent upon trade –Destination for production of surplus livestock products –Source of supply of products that cannot produce due to climate (e.g. milling wheat) –Source of considerable revenue from distilling industry If food security threatened by inability to trade very different agriculture would have to emerge?

14 Increasing capacity: Trade-offs We might have capacity to increase production, but higher levels of production are likely to have implications –Biodiversity –Water quality –GHG emissions Knock on effects to tourism?

15 Increasing capacity: Trade-offs Measurement of annual flows from agricultureTotal +ve (£m)Total -ve (£m) Annual impacts on society Landscapes and habitats Linear features Biodiversity Rivers Lakes Bathing Waters Estuaries Abstraction Provision of waste sink Agricultural waste Total annual (income) impacts on society* £854 £2 £ £35... £1, £62 £27 £11 £3 £62... £8 £172 Annual impacts on other sectors Drinking water Pollution incidents Flooding Soil erosion Total impacts on other sectors... £0 £129 £1 £234 £9 £373 Net impacts Net (measurable) income to society* Impact on other sectors Overall net impact on income* £1, £ £ Measurement of present value costs from air emission Total +ve (£m)Total -ve (£m) Climate change... £1,413 Air quality... £656 Measurable present value costs due to air emissions... £2,069

16 Alan Renwick Our Food Security Briefing can be found at: