Report on the breakout session on Rapid Estimates Roberto Barcellan European Commission - Eurostat

Issues (1) The relevance and utility for official statisticians of the Glossary and of the Handbook on Rapid Estimates Overview of the Handbook on Rapid Estimates A system of rapid estimates: different products for different purposes Rapid estimates for a set of indicators: a dashboard for short-term economic developments Minimum quality requirements for rapid estimates: timeliness, reliability, accuracy, coverage

Issues (2) Technical issues: (i) the use of hard and soft data; (ii) statistical and econometric techniques; (iii) revision policy and rapid estimates Communication on rapid estimates Alternative to rapid estimates Towards a common international approach to rapid estimates Recommendations on Rapid Estimates to the UN Statistical Commission

The relevance and utility for official statisticians of the Glossary and of the Handbook on Rapid Estimates Purpose of rapid estimates –Early picture of the economic development Need to clarify the different typologies of rapid estimates –Glossary Need to have guidelines for the compilation of rapid estimates –Handbook

Why a glossary on rapid estimates? Confusion in what is a rapid estimate Different terms used in relation to an early estimate of key macroeconomic indicators: nowcasts, flash estimates, early-advanced-preliminary estimates Different contents and purposes associated to the different typologies of rapid estimate Different methodology

Glossary - contents Definition Purpose Methodological considerations (techniques): –best practices, bad practices Information contents –Include quality elements (accuracy) Actors –national statistical systems

Why a handbook on rapid estimates? No existing international guidance Need to adress standards of compilation and reporting of rapid estimates Collecting best practices, harmonising them in the production framework and derive principles Reference compilation guide for newcomers in the business International harmonisation For compilers and users

Handbook – Annotated Outline (1) 1. Introduction –Purposes of the handbook, general framework and context, broad definition of rapid estimates, link to the glossary 2. Rapid estimates –Definition of the different typologies of rapid estimates, their characteristics and their purposes 3. Methodological aspects and information contents –Compilation techniques associated to the different typologies of rapid estimates –Information input to be used in the compilation of the different rapid estimates 4. Quality aspects –Timeliness, accuracy, reliability

Handbook – Annotated Outline (2) 5. Rapid estimates in the statistical production process –Sequence of rapid estimates products and their role in the production process 4. Target indicators for rapid estimates –Identification of the key short-term indicators suitable for rapid estimates; emphasis on GDP 6. Dashboard –Combination of rapid estimates for indicators for monitoring the evolution of the economy 7. Communication –How to disseminate rapid estimates and make users aware of the characteristics of this product

A system of rapid estimates: different products for different purposes Rapid estimates –Nowcasts –Flash estimates –Advanced-preliminary estimates

Minimum quality standards No pre-defined quality standards –No specific timeliness targets –No minimum thresholds for basic information –Adapt to the national statistical system Metainformation derived from the performances of the rapid estimates (to give an idea of the reliability – quality label) Testing period

Technical issues Use of hard and soft data –Fix some standards –Soft information if good correlation Statistical and econometric techniques –High or low intensity use of models –Depends on the models (and data input) –Adherence to the regular production process Revision policy and rapid estimates –Different views on revising past figures when releasing the rapid estimates

Creating a “culture” of rapid estimates No “culture” but communication strategy Transparency Create ideal targets: windows for the release of rapid estimates – step by step approach according to the status of the national statistical system Define which rapid estimate for which purpose Dashboard

Alternative to rapid estimates (of GDP) Monthly estimates of the indicator of economic activity (proxy of GDP) Discarded options: –no rapid estimates –alternative methods (Google type): for the future?

Towards an international approach to rapid estimates Coordination of the approach to rapid estimates at international level Expert group on rapid estimates Sharing best practices Fixing principles instead of establishing legal frameworks Building capacity at national level Coordination of communication aspects

Recommendations for UNSC Glossary Collect and consolidate the information on the availability of rapid estimates Handbook on rapid estimates Expert group on rapid estimates Implementation plans (for those country that want to produce rapid estimates) – resource constraints Strengthen national building capacity Promote “rapid estimates” communication

Way forward UNSC 2011 Launch the collection of information on availability and compilation processes Set up the expert group Glossary (end 2011) – broad endorsement Handbook (end 2012) – broad endorsement Long term development agenda (UNSC 2012)

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