Climate Change An Actuarial View  UK weather record; my wake up call  Fossil fuels, a long term view  Alternative greenhouse gas stabilisation targets  Psychology of climate change  Where should humanity aim?

Change to Climate in the United Kingdom

Carbon dioxide emissions from use of fossil fuels From the beginning of the industrial revolution Source: U.S.Environmental Protection Agency

Carbon dioxide emissions from use of fossil fuels From the beginning of human history (c.3000 B.C.) Now is the tip of the peak - a unique moment in history Refer: M.King Hubbert

Alternative Targets for Carbon Dioxide Stabilization 500 ppm CO 2 e (≈450 ppm CO ppm other)  Nicholas Stern is calling for a target stabilization level of no more than 500ppm CO 2 e.  This target gives >10% chance of 4 degrees warming. 450 ppm CO 2 e (≈400 ppm CO ppm other)  David King (ex-UK Government chief scientists) says anything above 450ppm CO 2 e carries an unacceptable risk.  Even at 450ppm CO 2 e it is highly likely that there will be more than 2 degrees C of warming. This is a critical point that is still not appreciated by most people. 350 ppm CO 2  James Hansen (head of the NASA Goddard Institute) is now saying that the maximum safe level of atmospheric CO2 is no more than 350ppm and it may be lower.

Worldview  “Worldview” is the set of beliefs, attitudes and values that comprises our mental model of the world.  Our worldview is our window on the world, we see the world through it.  It is also a filter. We tend to see only information that confirms our existing worldview.

Different Worldviews “We, the human species, are confronting a planetary emergency - a threat to the survival of our civilization that is gathering ominous and destructive potential” – Al Gore, Nobel Prize acceptance speech, Dec 2007 “Goodbye from the world's biggest polluter.” – George Bush, G8 Summit, July 2008

Why is our worldview so hard to change? Neuroscience has started to tell us why. Our brains have evolved to be:  Slow, noisy and imprecise – as design features.  But incredibly energy efficient. 20 watts power requirement.  We think as little as possible! Changing our mental models takes energy, our brains avoid it when possible. Refer: “How we make decisions” by Read Montague

Psychological Biases and heuristics  Prospect theory (insurance as a magic word)  Availability  Inaccurate estimation of probabilities - valence  Overconfidence  Anchoring and adjustment – underreaction Refer to: “Making Actuaries Less Human – lessons from behavioural finance”

Cognitive Dissonance Inconsistent cognitions produce dissonance (a state of unpleasant arousal) when:  You have freedom to decide  You are committed to your behaviour  The behaviour leads to forseeable adverse consequences The easiest way to reduce dissonance is to change beliefs. Refer: “Mistakes were made (but not by me)” by C.Tavris and E.Aronson

Psychology of climate change recap  Worldview - don’t see need for change  Anchoring – wrong target  Cognitive dissonance – don’t change target Conclusions:  We all need to make up our own minds  Do not expect those responsible to choose the right targets. Be prepared to fight.

How much time is left to act?  “The Arctic epitomizes the global climate situation. The most rapid feasible slowdown of CO 2 emissions … may just have a chance of avoiding disastrous climate change.”  “We are on the precipice of climate system tipping points beyond which there is no redemption.” - James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York

Target CO 2 : < 350 ppm To preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed

Al Gore’s proposal for clean energy 12 th July 2008 “America must commit to producing 100 percent of our electricity from renewable energy and other clean sources within 10 years.”