Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 SoSAFE and ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario for GG08 M w 7.8 on the Southern San Andreas Fault Kenneth W. Hudnut, Ph.D. U. S. Geological Survey Leader, So. San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project June 11, 2007 Southern California Earthquake Center - Leadership Retreat U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project Initial Mtg. held at SCEC annual mtg. Initial Workshop Jan. 8-9, 2007 at SCEC Commemorating the Sesquicentennial of the 1857 Fort Tejon Earthquake SCEC RFP Science Priority Objective A1: “Define slip rate and earthquake history of southern San Andreas fault system for last 2000 years” The newly formed SCEC Southern San Andreas Fault (SoSAFE) Project will increase our knowledge of slip rates and paleo-event chronology for the past two thousand years on the southern San Andreas fault system. From Parkfield to Bombay Beach, and including the San Jacinto fault, the objective is to obtain new data to clarify and refine relative hazard assessments for each potential source of a future 'Big One.' This initial meeting is an opportunity for participants to hear and discuss this new addition to the SCEC RFP, to openly discuss their interests, and to facilitate future collaborations in the broader context of a decade-long series of interdisciplinary, integrated and complementary studies on the southern San Andreas fault system.

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 We Are SoSAFE! SoSAFE Workshop Jan. 8-9, 2007 at SCEC

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 SoSAFE Initial Year USGS MHI Funds to SCEC After Jan. workshop, $100K committed by Pat Leahy despite the all-year CR; in the end received full funding at $240K (!) Support recommended by SCEC PC –PI’s Scharer, Platt, Biasi, Kashgarian, Oskin, Arrowsmith, McGill, Seitz –Partial support for new work at Cuddy Valley, Cow Spring (NW Mojave section SAF) and Clark Lake (SJF), and for continued work at promising sites (Bidart, Coachella, Salt Creek, Biskra Palms) –Partial support for excellent students (Behr, Philobosian, Le, Toke) –Funds for workshop #2 and coordination meetings Coordinated GeoEarthScope geochronology requests through a SoSAFE telecon Several SoSAFE-related proposals sent to USGS NEHRP Planning to submit an NSF proposal through SCEC - Dec. 1, 2007 (~$400K/yr for five yrs.)

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Courtesy of Tom Fumal

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 SoSAFE In-Field Scientific Review Process Grant, Akciz & Arrowsmith SoSAFE reviewers: Weldon, Kendrick, Borsa

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 M w 7.8 ‘ShakeOut’ Scenario (Nov. 13, 2008) San Andreas ‘Really Big One’ simulated earthquake Initiation near Bombay Beach (unilateral rupture to the NW) Slip of 4.5 meters at Cajon Pass (I- 15); disruption of critical lifeline infrastructure (freeway, internet, power and gas lines) Basic description sent out via OES statewide and announced at SoSAFE workshop Jan. 9, 2007 Developments needed: –Earthquake Early Warning Zipper array along fault Lifeline crossings –Building Damage Assessment DamageMap Credit: Nitin Gupta, OpenSHA & Ned Field, USGS

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Earthquake Scenario at 3 Levels of Detail Basic Rupture Description: –Mw 7.8, unilateral rupture starting at Bombay Beach SE endpoint (Bombay Beach): , NW endpoint (Lake Hughes): , Static Rupture Description –23 points along-strike (from SCEC CFM-R) –Slip predictable model to construct slip distribution along-strike –Slip rates, dips and depths for all sections of the San Andreas from the WGCEP, Appendix A. by Wills, Weldon and Bryant (March 1, draft version) Kinematic Rupture Description –Uses the SCEC CFM triangular surface representation in full detail (rather than the CFM-R). The above Static Rupture Description slip distribution formed the 'background' model during construction of the Kinematic Rupture Description as follows; a 30 km wavelength random slip function was convolved with the background slip. Then, scaling criteria were applied to the slip distribution to generate the rise time and rupture speed. From this, contours showing the rupture front at one-second intervals were also computed. Available with documentation at Hudnut, Jones & Aagaard (SSA 2007)

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 ShakeOut - Static Rupture Description thrusting & folding ±310±316±322±628±7 Slip Rates: SE end Bombay Beach NW end Lake Hughes ±310±316±322±628±7 WGCEP Slip Rates: thrusting & folding rupture propagation direction slip (meters)

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Kinematic Rupture Model (beta v.1) more details available on the Urban Earth www site or by contacting Hudnut or Aagaard including RefEq standard rupture model format file Slip (meters) SE (BB)NW CP SGP View is from a point to the NE and above the San Andreas fault

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Courtesy of Rob Graves

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Courtesy of Rob Graves

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 San Andreas - need to instrument major lifeline infrastructure crossings

Effect of an earthquake on the economy Economic activity Time Expected activity ‘Disaster’ (a few yrs.) ‘Catastrophe’ (decades) Disaster or Catastrophe? Need to encourage action to reduce impacts

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 San Andreas fault at Cajon Pass - critical lifeline crossing B4 LiDAR imagery before and after earthquake for measuring fault offsets - supports mitigation & rapid restoration of lifeline infrastructure San Andreas fault zone

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 B4 data at work for SoSAFE & ShakeOut

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Critical Lifelines Infrastructure Impacts

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 SoSAFE is under way (SCEC paleoseismology) B4 LiDAR Project completed; data openly available SCEC funds distributed USGS NEHRP RFP deadline & NSF proposal preparations M W 7.8 earthquake scenario has been specified 3 levels of rupture description detail made available next-generation attenuation relation models done - to be input to HAZUS ground motion simulations in progress Slip at Lifelines Fault Crossings has been specified economic modeling to be conducted workshop with lifeline operators (May & Oct. 2007) Multi-hazard triggered events to be included in the scenario ShakeOut exercise - November 13, GG08