PAT Price Analysis Training – Synthesis Exercise Session 5.1. WFP Markets Learning Programme Price Analysis Training

Learning Objectives By the end of this session, participants should be able to:  Explain the importance, value and potential contribution of price analysis to food security analysis  Apply the tools and techniques learned in the Price Analysis Training to analyse market conditions WFP Markets Learning Programme Price Analysis Training

 Real vs. Nominal Prices  Terms of Trade  Seasonality and Volatility  Import Parity Price  Market Integration Content Key Price Analysis Concepts & Tools WFP Markets Learning Programme Price Analysis Training

WFP Markets Learning Programme Price Analysis Training Country Team Synthesis Exercise 5.1. Ceasefire in Sudesia!

Background  The conflict in northern Sudesia which erupted in early 2007 is drawing to a close with ceasefire declared by both government & rebel forces.  Since the violence erupted, the Zone of Conflict has been largely off-limits to the international community.  Information has been obtained mainly from Marketastani traders travelling south. In some months extreme violence in Sudesia resulted in trade ruptures – with little information available for those months.  Humanitarian agencies are now able to access the zone.  A WFP-led EFSA is planned and will visit Alphatown, Bravotown and Charlietown where many residents & IDPs are believe to be living in conditions of food insecurity  The EFSA team will be joined by market analysts. WFP Markets Learning Programme Price Analysis Training 5.1.5

Task Your market analysis team’s goal is to determine how markets are functioning in the north. Through application of the various tools listed in the box to the right, determine:  What are the implications for household food security and for WFP decision-making of your market analysis?  What are your recommendations to senior management? WFP Markets Learning Programme Price Analysis Training Consider:  Real vs. Nominal Price Analysis  Terms of Trade Analysis  Seasonality and Volatility Analysis  Import Parity Price Analysis  Market Integration Analysis

Debriefing WFP Markets Learning Programme Price Analysis Training All groups present analysis to plenary. Then each group will present assigned charts: Group 1: Real vs. Nominal Price Analysis Terms of Trade Analysis Seasonality and Volatility Analysis Group 2: Import Parity Price Analysis Market Integration Analysis