Contributions from: Norwegian Meteorological Institute(met.no) Norwegian Meteorological Institute(met.no) Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen(GfI-UiB) Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen(GfI-UiB) Institute of Marine Research(IMR) Institute of Marine Research(IMR) Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center(NERSC) Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center(NERSC) NOClim PT 5 Objectives and deliverables: Did we deliver? Key contributors: Arne Melsom (met.no) Øystein Skagseth (GfI-UiB) Kjell Arne Mork (IMR) Svein Sundby (IMR) Knut A. Lisæter (NERSC) © NOTE! This presentation, and results quoted herein, are the property of the various contributing institutes, and must not be used without prior consent. Send requests concerning such questions, and others, to:

Principal Task 5 objectives to improve our understanding and description of seasonal and interannual variability of the water masses that flow into and within the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean, including the extent and fluxes of sea ice

Key Questions (KQ) 1.Does teleconnections by oceanic pathways give rise to significant interannual variability in the AW inflow, or is the local wind forcing always the controlling mechanism for such variability? 2.By quantitative amounts, what is the seasonal and interannual variability in the AW inflow along its eastern and western branches? 3.By quantitative amounts, what are the seasonal and interannual variability, and trends, in the ice and ocean variables and fluxes of the Arctic Ocean? 4. What is the seasonal and interannual variability of the position and strength of the front between Atlantic Water and Arctic Water in the Nordic Seas?

Principal Task 5 deliverables publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals oral presentations in international science meetings and conferences oral presentations in NOClim’s workshop contributions to proceedings from NOClim workshops contributions to the NOClim project web site contributions to progress reports and the final report to the Norwegian Research Council

Key Question 1: Does teleconnections by oceanic pathways give rise to significant interannual variability in the AW inflow, or is the local wind forcing always the controlling mechanism for such variability? Investigations focused on: propagating SST anomalies propagating SSS anomalies

COADS SST winter anomalies, 1970: daSilva SST winter anomalies, 1970: Reference domains: Propagating SST anomalies Northeastern North Atlantic Ocean (NNAO) Southern Nordic Seas (SNS)

confidence levels:correlations: 5 years leading 5 years leading 10 years leading

Propagating salinity anomalies Propagation speeds of salinity anomalies: Salinity in the subarctic gyre: Fylla New- foundland Rockall Kola

Key Question 2: By quantitative amounts, what is the seasonal and interannual variability in the AW inflow along its eastern and western branches? Investigations focused on: interannual hydrographic variability SSH variability seasonal transport variability

Svinøy section Interannual hydrography anomalies in the Svinøy section

March/April July/August Area and mean temperature of the Svinøy section Atlantic Water

Sea surface height variability and ocean circulation SSH vs. MSLP (1st principal components, normalized): SSS vs. NwASC (normalized time series): SSS NwASC Coherence as a function of frequency (in 1/months): sea surface slope (SSS): SSS= [SSH(A) – SSH(B)]/dx (Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current)

Seasonal transport variability in the Svinøy section

Key Question 3: By quantitative amounts, what are the seasonal and interannual variability, and trends, in the ice and ocean variables and fluxes of the Arctic Ocean? Investigations focused on: trends in the ice extent based on satellite-born instrument and historical records dominant frequencies for ice extent variability

Ice extent and ice area from passive microwave data

A century of ice extent and air temperature data

Ice border at 10°E in the Fram Strait Data source: Norwegian Polar Institute 10°E 80°N