Natural Gas The World‘s Endowment with Natural Gas ♦ The Perspective from BGR‘s new Energy Study J. Peter Gerling & Hilmar Rempel BGR – Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hannover, Germany 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Definitions (1) conventional natural gas –free natural gas –oil associated gas non-conventional natural gas –tight gas –coal bed methane (CBM) –aquifer gas –gas hydrates 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Definitions (2) reserves hydrocarbon quantities proven in fields which can be produced economically with current technologies resources - geologically identified hydrocarbons which can’t be economically produced under present conditions - unidentified but expected hydrocarbons due to geological reasons in equivalent regions (yet to find) Hereby we consider for reserves as well as for resources the recoverable amount 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

EUR of Conventional Gas - since nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Reg. Verteilung EUR of Conventional Gas – Global Overview 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

EUR Conventional Gas: Prominent Countries 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Strat. Ellipse Distribution of Conventional Gas Reserves 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Conventional Gas Reserves 2001 – top 10 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Ressourcen Conventional Gas Resources 2001 – top 10 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Conventional Gas Production 2001 – top 10 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Production and Consumption Regional Distribution 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Gas Consumption 2001 – top 10 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Transport Costs of Fossil Fuels After Hatamian (1998) and Verein deutscher Kohleimporteure: Annual Report 1998 converted to US$/toe 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Natural gas production 2001 : 2530 G.m 3 Natural gas traded: 25.6 % (650 G.m 3 ) - via Pipeline : 20.0 % (507 G.m 3 ) - via LNG : 5.6 % (143 G.m 3 ) For comparison: Crude oil traded :ca Mt (ca. 60 %) Gas Trade nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Gas Trade nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Marktüberschreitender Handel Gas Trade 2001 – LNG, market-exceeding 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Availability of Conventional Gas 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Static Lifetime - Conventional Gas 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Worldwide Gas Production - History and Scenarios until nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Gas Data 2001 vs 1997 in T.m³ReservesResources conventional gas CBM aquifer gas non-convent. gas total gas tight gas gas hydrates 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

sufficient natural gas for the coming decades transport costs are a limiting factor long-term investments for realizing new capacities adequate gas price level necessary a liberalised gas market might prevent exploration activities Conclusions 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Natural gas may become t h e energy resource through the first half of the 21st century – a „transition commodity“ on the way into a society based on renewables Nevertheless 2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27