Swain Hall West- 1 st Floor DVB office 007 Stairs Student Services office (drop/add) Secretary’s office

Swain Hall West- 2 nd Floor Physics Forum Library

8:30 a.m Mitch DanielsMitch Daniels, Indiana Governor — WELCOME Loeb Playhouse, Stewart Center 8:45 a.m Richard G. LugarRichard G. Lugar, U.S. Senator — KEYNOTE ADDRESS National security and energy policy Loeb Playhouse, Stewart Center 9:30 a.m Martin C. JischkeMartin C. Jischke, Purdue University President Overview of energy research and policy issues; liquid fuels policy and national security Loeb Playhouse, Stewart Center 2006

Some useful Websites for this Course (US DOE Energy Information Administration) (International Energy Agency) (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). (U.S. DOE Energy Efficiency and renewable energy). world-factbook/index.html (CIA world fact book) world-factbook/index.html

U.S. Energy Flow, 2005 (Quads) U.S. Energy Flow, 2005 (Quads) 5  85% of primary energy is from fossil fuels; 8% is from nuclear; 6% is from renewables.  Most imported energy is petroleum, which is used for transportation.  The end-use sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation) all use comparable amounts of energy.

Adding numbers requires the right UNITS!! This sign makes no sense, you can’t add years and people!

Energy appetites for each sector

U.S Renewable energy sector (2005)

Energy Source Distribution

NOTE the difference In the nature of the mix!

U.S. Historical Trends H&K fig 1.6, 1.7

U.S. Wind power since 1995 From EIA website Annual Energy Report: % annual growth DATA FIT

H&K fig. 1.3 Industrialized nations predicted to have 1%/yr growth, developing nations 3%/yr

September ’06 Sci. American One potential source of articles for the article summary and/or term paper

Exponential Growth/Decay Time rate of change of X is PROPORTIONAL to X itself “ y Proportional to x” => y=rx (r is a constant) For our case here: dX/dt=rX (if you like calculus) Solution to this is: X=X o e rt ln(X) = ln(X o ) + rt

Exponential Growth/Decay Time rate of change of X is PROPORTIONAL to X itself “ y Proportional to x” => y=rx (r is a constant) For our case here: dX/dt=rX (if you like calculus) Solution to this is: X=X o e rt ln(X) = ln(X o ) + rt

A subtle point “Annual compounding” is not the same thing as “continuous compounding”, so you have to be a little careful with how you discuss annual growth rates. True exponential growth with a rate of 7.5%/yr for two years gives an increase of: X=X o e 0.075/yr*2yr =1.162*X o An “annually compounded” interest rate of 7.5%/yr gives: X=X o *(1.075) 2 =1.156*X o i.e. e is not exactly equal to (it’s really , so it is slightly bigger). The difference between the two cases is greater if you consider greater periods of time.

Hubbert Curve H&K fig World Coal Production Curve

Hubbert Curve H&K fig Exponential extrapolation World Coal Production Curve Data

Hubbert Curve H&K fig Exponential extrapolation World Coal Production Curve Data Finite resource -> Final answer is 0 Exponential growth CANNOT be sustained in a World of FINITE resources!!

Hubbert Curves H&K fig H&K fig US Oil production US Natural Gas production

CO 2 Concentrations and Temperature Change Note that total temperature change across several ice ages was only about 12 o C or about 22 o F.

World Oil Prices since 1970 (H&K fig. 1.14)

Energy Conversions (Table 2.2) Incandescent light digestion thermal