Nuclear War will be inevitable unless ….. Frank Boulton Medact Conference 9 th November 2013

Humankind under stress Climate change – raining in the wrong places Global population growth –Obesity epidemic Excessive use of inappropriate energy sources –Oil price rises and effects on developing world health Excessive water consumption Crisis from gross economic mismanagement

Pressure on and mal-distribution of markets in basic resources (food, water, energy) has become unsustainable. The resulting stress, never before so extreme, gives rise to a real risk that in a moment of irrationality or panic, a nuclear war will be started

Nuclear weapons Have no credible use –Useless against terrorist attacks Are expensive to maintain Thinking that possession deters is deluded –proliferation, accidents, nature of the threat Even if not used pose unique and long-term hazards to public health –dangers of ‘low-level radiation’ misrepresented

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Entered into force in 1970 Non-nuclear Weapons States have the right to develop nuclear power for peaceful purposes Nuclear Weapons States are committed to disarm COMPLETELY ‘in good faith’.

Nuclear weapons modernisation Actively pursued by all NWS Missile Defense (to make nuclear war ‘winnable’) Trident replacement European scenario

Link with conventional weapon disarmament Although Obama is ‘committed’ to a nuclear- weapon free world, US conventional forces – already by far the most powerful – are expanding This is causing an imbalance – e.g. possible withdrawal of China from ‘no first use of NW’ Negotiations for conventional weapons disarmament are also essential (Oxford Research Group Nov 2013)

Solutions – interdependence and positive feed-back phenomenon Good public health Education Rebalance the global economy –eliminate greed, fear and corruption Achieve more equal but diverse societies Improve resources (low-carbon) and their distribution Relieve population pressures Remove the causes of war

International Activists IPPNW PNND ICAN –Oslo and Mexico governmental conferences UNGA

UN High Level Conference on Nuclear Disarmament in 2018 –to review and advance the process, and –establish 26 September as the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons. 129 countries voted in favour