Northwest Power and Conservation Council Proposed Revisions to Council’s Fuel Price Forecasts Natural Gas Advisory Committee June 27, 2007.

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Presentation transcript:

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Proposed Revisions to Council’s Fuel Price Forecasts Natural Gas Advisory Committee June 27, 2007

Northwest Power and Conservation Council 5 th Plan Natural Gas Price Compared to More Recent

Northwest Power and Conservation Council 5 th Plan Natural Gas and Proposed Revision

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Revised Natural Gas Price Forecast Compared to Others

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Natural Gas Price (2006$/MMBtu)

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Western Natural Gas Prices

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Natural Gas Prices to PNW

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Basis Differentials

Northwest Power and Conservation Council West-Side Delivery Cost Sumas Price6.72 Firm Capacity.64 Commodity.05 In-Kind Fuel1.74%.12 Firm Supply Premium 0 Delivered Price7.53

Northwest Power and Conservation Council East-Side Delivery Cost AECO Price6.62 Firm Capacity.52 Commodity.01 In-Kind Fuel2.8%.19 Firm Supply Premium 0 Delivered Price7.34

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Other Assumptions LCD delivery cost for large customer? Capacity release rates? What share of firm pipeline capacity cost might be recovered from release market? Incremental long-term capacity cost? Any firm gas supply premium? Share of firm supply for electricity generator?

Northwest Power and Conservation Council 5 th Plan Oil Price Range Compared to Recent Forecasts

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Proposed Revision of Oil Price Forecast

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Revised Oil Price Forecast Compared to Other Recent Forecasts

Northwest Power and Conservation Council World Oil Price (2006$/Barrel)

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Revised Coal Price Forecast Compared to AEO 2007

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Coal Price Forecast Range and Assumed Growth Rates

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Comparative Fuel Prices Industrial Sector

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Historical Comparative Prices

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Ratio of Real Crude Price Per Barrel to Wellhead NG Price Per MMBtu

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