Scoping and Suggested Approach

The team of Bleakly Advisory Group, PBS&J and Dr. Bruce Seaman were hired by the 1071 Coalition to prepare an analysis of the economic impacts of low water levels at Lake Lanier on the region and state. The goal of the analysis--to provide a measure of the economic impacts of low lake levels on the economy of the Lake Lanier region, the Atlanta region and the state. This information will be useful to inform the debate about the economic consequences of maintaining the lake a certain levels during its peak season.

*Data taken first of each month Source: US Army Corps of Engineers

The Study Area includes portions of 11 zip codes in 4 counties.

There are 10,616 Employers within the immediate Lake Lanier Area 9,632 are private sector businesses 984 are government and non-profit entities 133,306 people work within the immediate Lake Lanier Area There are 216,000 people living in the immediate Lake Lanier area-- An 87% increase from 158,948 in 2000 An 102% increase from 107,061 in 1990.

According to Dun&Bradstreet… 215 area businesses employing nearly 1,900 persons are directly engaged in marine-related, lodging and amusement & recreation services. These businesses have estimated combined annual sales of $145.7 million More than 2,400 additional businesses are engaged in home construction and related activities. These businesses employ 9,400 workers and generate annual sales of $1.1 billion Most of these businesses are dependent to some degree on Lake Lanier

There are 1,226,500 residents in the five county Lake Lanier region

1.What is the economic significance of Lake Lanier on the counties that border the Lake—Gwinnett, Hall, Forsyth, Lumpkin? 2.What is the economic impact of Lake Lanier on the State of Georgia and industries that depend on the flow of water from the lake i.e., regional water authorities, agriculture, manufacturing, power generation, landscaping, etc. 3.How does Lake Lanier impact the public revenues of governments in the region and statewide? 4.What have been the economic impacts of low Lake levels on the Region’s and state’s economy? 5.Have the economies of the surrounding counties and Metro Atlanta in general been negatively impacted by drought conditions to a degree that is disproportionate to downstream users?

Primary Data Collection Scoping and Final Workplan Scoping and Final Workplan Estimating the Direct Economic Impacts Estimating the Direct Economic Impacts Estimating the Indirect Economic Impacts Estimating the Indirect Economic Impacts Estimating the Public Revenue Impacts Estimate of the Economic Loss due to Drought Estimate of the Economic Loss due to Drought

Lake Lanier Regional Impacts: One Time Benefits from new residential and commercial construction in terms of value and payroll Recurring Benefits From Economic Activity General visitation levels Hotels, overnight accommodations, conference facilities, visitor attractions Marinas/marina activities Residential activity and pricing Retail and Commercial Activity Key trends to assess: Out of region, regional and local visitation mix

Data on Development Activity: –GIS Data on development in core counties –SmartNumbers new residential sales data –Resale Data? –Survey of Lake Lanier Businesses Initial In-person survey for instrument testing and refinement Mail survey with in-person follow-up to sample of key businesses by sector Prepare estimates of direct economic impacts

Indirect economic impacts will be measured using a regional forecasting model (REMI or IMPLAN) to develop current economic multipliers for lake area, Atlanta region, state Model will measure all economic impacts and identify sectors which are impacted greatly. Selected surveys done with industry reps in key sectors to confirm model results

Complete Study Design5/15 Primary Data Collection5/15- 7/15 Direct Impacts7/15-8/30 Indirect Impacts8/30-9/15 Public Revenues8/30/9/15 Estimating Drought Loss9/15- 10/15 Impact report10/15

Finalize the study design Design the impacts survey instrument Test the survey instrument with a sample Finalize decision on REMI or IMPLAN as regional model. Collect secondary data on direct impacts (GIS, SmartNumbers, Other) Begin the interview process

Ken Bleakly Gary Mongeon Tel