Trends in lower stratosphere Jean-François Lamarque (NCAR and NOAA) and Susan Solomon (NOAA)

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Presentation transcript:

Trends in lower stratosphere Jean-François Lamarque (NCAR and NOAA) and Susan Solomon (NOAA)

Observed ozone trend (SAGE) Net ozone change (%) Randel and Wu, 2007

Motivation/Methodology Identify the separate roles of changes in chemical composition and changes in climate on lower stratospheric trends (ozone, temperature) Perform a set of simulations in which various parameters (CO2,CFCs) are kept at their 1970 level

Model setup CAM3 with interactive (feedback with radiation) chemistry 2° (latitude)x2.5°(longitude)x26 levels (up to 40 km) NMHC chemistry + stratospheric chlorine-bromine reactions (including PSCs) from WACCM Observed SSTs and boundary conditions for CFCs, CO2, CH4 and N2O. Fixed (2000) emissions for other reactive gases and aerosols.

Low-top issue? 20°S-20°N average ( ) vertical velocity from CAM and WACCM (km/year). 20°S-20°N trend in vertical velocity ( ) from CAM and WACCM (%/decade).

Tropical ozone change

Vertical velocity Net chemical tendency

Tropopause pressure trends Obs. from Seidel et al., 2008

Tropopause pressure NCEP trends from S. Davis (NOAA) Trend Not significant

Change in the width of the tropics Seidel et al., 2008

Total ozone column

Conclusions Tropical lower stratosphere ozone trend due to changes in vertical velocity, not chemistry Different agents are responsible for trends in various measures of tropopause position and width of the tropics in the model

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