Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Positioning Foresight in Strategic Governance in Less Advanced Countries Daniela Tchonkova ARC Fund, Bulgaria

Positioning Foresight in Strategic Governance in Less Advanced Countries Anticipation Strategic Planning Forecas t Governance Foresight?

Initial Paradigm Future-Oriented Technology Analysis A collective notion for a variety of methods and approaches used in futures studies to explore, foresee and anticipate future technology developments, assess their possible impact on society and devise present-time undertakings for shaping these future developments so as to give impetus to economic growth and improve social welfare. Foresight? Tendency to follow S&T developments of advanced countries Insufficient number of good examples Lack of clear impact demonstration

The discipline of developing a forward view in time Soul Dynamics Glossary The discipline of developing a forward view in time Soul Dynamics Glossary Hindrances to obtaining clear impact assessment Lack of common understanding of the essence of Foresight Positioning Foresight in Strategic Governance in Less Advanced Countries Foresight covers activities aiming at thinking, debating, shaping the future CORDIS: Development of research/innovation policies, Science and Technology Foresight Foresight covers activities aiming at thinking, debating, shaping the future CORDIS: Development of research/innovation policies, Science and Technology Foresight Foresight is a method of thinking about the future in order to think about what should be done now The Future of Health Care Foresight is a method of thinking about the future in order to think about what should be done now The Future of Health Care Foresight is thinking, debating and shaping the future. Foresight is about shaping the future, not predicting it. It encompasses a wide range of approaches used in planning, networking and the management of group processes, and organisational learning. According to the High Level Group of Foresight, set up by Commission DG Research Foresight is thinking, debating and shaping the future. Foresight is about shaping the future, not predicting it. It encompasses a wide range of approaches used in planning, networking and the management of group processes, and organisational learning. According to the High Level Group of Foresight, set up by Commission DG Research Process by which one comes to a fuller understanding of the forces shaping the long-term future which should be taken into account in policy formulation, planning and decision making Australian Government, Department of Education, Science and Training Process by which one comes to a fuller understanding of the forces shaping the long-term future which should be taken into account in policy formulation, planning and decision making Australian Government, Department of Education, Science and Training etc.

Positioning Foresight in Strategic Governance in Less Advanced Countries Hindrances to obtaining clear impact assessment Diversity of Foresight objectives To inform the process of policy making To support decision making To generate and structure knowledge To network To build consensus To shape the future etc.

Results? Positioning Foresight in Strategic Governance in Less Advanced Countries Hindrances to obtaining clear impact assessment Diversity of outcomes that are often misinterpreted as results of Foresight Outcomes ? Foresight networks networks visions visions priorities priorities or

Positioning Foresight in Strategic Governance in Less Advanced Countries Foresight impact assessment. Considerations for obtaining clearer impact assessment Effectiveness WHAT? Objective Efficacy HOW? Objective

Top-down vs bottom-up approach RISKS Setting the right long-term goal Positioning Foresight in Strategic Governance in Less Advanced Countries Positioning Foresight in relation to strategic planning and forecast Build constituency to Foresight

*************************************** Daniela Tchonkova (Ms.) Coordinator, ARC Fund EUREKA NIP 6 Gurko Str., Sofia 1000 BULGARIA phones: (+359 2) , (+359 2) mobile: ( ) fax: (+359 2) ********************************************************** Don't wait for the right opportunity: create it! (George Bernard Shaw) ********************************************************** Positioning Foresight in Strategic Governance in Less Advanced Countries Thank you for listening