Synoptic situations associated to floods in the river mouths

Method: Purposes: Classify synoptic situations associated to various types of floods Assess the meteorological fields during the floods periods simulated by mesoscale Cosmo model Synoptic frontal analysis is applied Data from GIS-Meteo system is used (since 1997). Time resolution – 3 hours includes: SLP, geopotential at all pressure levels ( hPa) Precipitation Cloudiness temperature at 2m and pressure levels Data of radiolocation Wind speed and direction

Types of floods: Storm surges Water-flow Ice-jam Areas: Baltic sea Black sea Azov sea Caspian sea Barents sea

Нагонные наводнения Storm surges

Neva. February ч H500 Surface map L L

Wind at 10 m GMT

L Surface map

Norvegian cyclone

Pregolya Surface map H500

Wind at 10 m GMT

ч Surface map H500

Wind at 10 m GMT

GMT Novorossiysk April 1997 L L L L L Surface map H500

ч L L L H500 Surface map

GMT Wind at 10 m

GMT Wind at 10 m

GMT Wind at 10 m

GMT Eisk, Azov H500 L L L Surface map

GMT L L L H500 Surface map

GMT L L L H500 Surface map

ч Wind at 10 m ч ч

Mouth of Don river. April GMT L L Surface map

L GMT

GMT Wind at 10 m

Mouth of Don river 28 February 2005 L L Surface map H500

GMT L L Surface map H500

Wind at 10 m

Water flow

Kerch November 2007 Surface map L

Novorossiysk 7-9 December 2002 Surface map L L H L

Sochi-Tuapse 5-11 August 2002 Surface map L L L H L

H500

Mzymta October 1997 Surface map L

Pregolya 7-10 August 2005 Surface map L

Sulak July 1997 Surface map L H H

Sulak June 2002 Surface map L

Terek June 2002 Surface map H

Ice-jam

Pechora June 2008 Surface map L Н Н

Pechora June 1998 Surface map L L

Conclusions Storm surges – the main contribution of the wind Neva – zonal cyclonic process Pregolya – zonal cyclonic process + contribution of frontal precipitation Black sea region – common contribution of winds and precipitation Potential predictors – trajectories of depressions, wind speed and wind direction. Water flow – the main factor abundant precipitation Various origin of precipitation – frontal zone, topography, deep depressions No unified scheme of synoptic situation Potential predictors – intensity and location of frontal zone Ice-jam – main cause large zonal frontal zone expanding in north- south direction. Potential predictors – zonal temperature gradient, precipitation