The influence of SEA: the psychology and sociology of political decision making IAIA’05 – Prague 2005 Marc Van Dyck, Resource Analysis

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck In search of effective SEA processes Starting point : We agree that the quality of the final political decision determines the effectiveness of the SEA research, evaluation and presentation ! Boston : analysis of the psychology of politicians making decisions – explanation why they can feel uncomfortable with SEA Today : analysis of institutional / societal influences on politicians – explanations for differences in acceptance of SEA-output in political decisions in different countries

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck Overview Decision making process Scientific experts Public and organisations Administrative departments – policy makers Politicians c.q. the Minister SEA Technical Institutional Societal; psychological

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck The psychology of a politicians decision making – conclusions in Boston Politicians Scientists Policy- makers Public Current situation : Decisions not under umbrella of SEA and political world not adjusted to SEA Analysis of decision making process by politicians : ‘risk-factors’ Major plans and controversial Uncertainties about dose-impact relationships ‘Change of things’ = not popular Politicians prefer decisions with high impact (many involved potential voters) and low risk (broadly acceptable) Trust and communication are very influencial factors in the decision making process => create new relationships.

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck Things politicians do not like about an SEA New unforeseen alternatives Uncertainty of research results Strict procedural steps / clear value frames / clear communication High impact, high risk ! Conclusions : SEA-procedures : Formal procedures will never prohibit political forces to come into action and influence the decision making : accept this ! Non-technical factors like power, communication, risk perception and personal feelings influence the impact of an SEA outcome on the decision making process : do not ignore them ! The psychology of a politicians decision making – conclusions in Boston (2)

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck Comments in Boston : Non-technical solutions to strenghten the influence of SEA in decision-making Formal requirements to conduct effective SEA-research will support the separation between the scientific and the political process Clear value frames : though opposed by politicians, to make the evaluation of alternatives more acceptable to politicians and public. Changing traditional decision making processes : it will take at least a generation to change this. Politicians should not see SEA as the ‘enemy’, but as their support in an upward spiral. A clear focus : difficult to combine with participative processes. The public and policy makers abuse participative processes for the purpose of their agenda. Clear and effective communication and involvement will be allowed as long as it fits within the political agenda. Acknowledging and dealing with uncertainties is the major problem for politicians and the public. Tiering decisions is a difficult one to accept by these two parties. Clear competences and willingness to co-operate : difficult to realise in the pluralist democracy with hidden agenda’s… Adequate research Correct decision making Useful information Wide acceptance of output Full future involvement

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck But politicians are the same everywhere ??? – Not exactly…. Institu- tional context and organisa- tion Acceptance of participation as an influence SEA as a policy preparation tool Political decision Decision making process

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck Let’s compare two most different cases ! Source: M. Brans, R. Maes, Institute for the government – University of Leuven, Belgium

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck Model comparison Political decision BelgiumThe Netherlands Political parties; election driven; pillarization Interactive policy planning; strong parliament Political parties; election driven; pillarization Interactive policy planning; strong parliament

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck Recent evolutions : Need for convergence EU law and programmes put pressure on Belgian’s classic distributive policy - partitocracy Policy problems internationalize as do policy solutions… A legitimacy crisis of the partitocracy is read in electoral volatity and the rise of new parties… The gap between politicians and citizens forces Belgium to move in the direction of the Dutch polity Critique of the ‘clientelist’ politics : need to sever politicians particular links with the population…

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck Relationship between societal and institutional factors and acceptance of SEA(-outcome) in Belgium In SEA (New) open and (old) closed decision making arena’s need to be combined : input must come from both institutionalized societal actors (advisory bodies) as from smaller civil movements or groups and individuals. Animation of policy processes is mainly done by members of ministerial cabinets; new policy making structures like open planning processes do not match with existing policy making cultures and traditions Civil servants do not always have the experience in developing a new policy making process and are not always able to match it with the political decision making process. Formal character of the procedures for SEA guarantees involvement but not an open decision making process; if the political decision making process is more formalized as well, acceptance of involvement in SEA by societal actors is stronger

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck Enhancement of the influence of SEA- outcome on decision-making Quality of SEA-research and presentation of results Set of scientific criteria and set of adapted societal value frames Appropriate input from both formalized advisory bodies and other input processes Acknowledgement of the psychology of political decision making in a partitocracy Analysis of the politicians promise to its voters

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck How to streamline SEA with the decision making culture ? – case partitocracy Quality-satisfaction-trust – model : Quality of SEA in contents and communicative value creates satisfaction for those who have to decide and will make them trust the output of the SEA. Make clear two separate evaluations : the scientific evaluation and the societal evaluation : two sets of criteria might help. The final evaluation should include both sets of criteria. To have the ultimate decision support, including the political level (ministerial cabinets) in the preparation of an SEA might be helpful; the distinction between scientific input and societal issues remains important. Including the institutionalized advisory bodies (societal ‘pillar organisations’) in the informal discussion process might be interesting but hard to realize : most of these parties will keep their opinion to themselves until formally asked for. Give a clear (process) risk evaluation : what is the risk when one or the other solution is chosen ? Keep in mind what politicians have promised to their voters : how does the plan or programme fit into the politician’s promises : include information from political documents. Prepare answers for the questions of the individual citizen.

27/09/05 IAIA’05 SEA Prague Political decision making and the influence of en SEA-process - Marc Van Dyck Conclusion If you want the SEA-outcome to have an effective influence on the decision-making process, you will have to cope with : existing planning culture institutionalized processes interactive forms of policy making political decision making ethics