CHANGING THE GLOBAL STATE-OF-DISASTER RESILIENCE DURING THE 21 ST CENTURY Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA
ELEMENTS OF A FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL DIALOGUE AND ACTION
BACKGROUND INFORMATION SOIRCE: ISDR, 2012
BETWEEN 2002 AND 2011 (Source: ISDR, 2012) 4130 disasters reported 1,117,527 dead At least $US 1,95 billion in direct economic losses
DURING 2011 (Source: ISDR, 2012) 302 disasters reported 29,782 dead 206 million people affected At least $US 306 billion in direct economic losses
TOWARDS 21 ST CENTURY GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
1. SCOPE FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTER IN YOUR COMMUNITY TO DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF “THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
A DISASTER is the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes,...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.
THE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS PEOPLE ( 7 Billion and counting) COMMUNITIES RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards), which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T
EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE OF READINESS
YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS FLOODS SEVERE WIND STORMS EARTHQUAKES …ETC A DISASTER CAUSES FAILURES IN POLICIES FAILURES IN PRACTICES COUNTER MEASURES BEST POLICIES BEST PRACTICES DISASTER RESILIENCE
PEOPLE = DIVERSITY 200 NATIONS AND 7+ BILLION PEOPLE 200 NATIONS AND 7+ BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA CARIBBEAN BASIN CARIBBEAN BASIN SUB-SAHARA AFRICA SUB-SAHARA AFRICA MEDITER- RANEAN MEDITER- RANEAN ISLAND NATIONS ISLAND NATIONS ASIA SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA EUROPE
LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM NEVER ENDS
LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS IGNORANCE APATHY DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM 7 + BILLION ( DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)
THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE) GOVERNMENT DWELLINGS SCHOOLS HEALTH CARE FACILITIES BUSINESSES INFRA- STRUCTURE ETC
THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS ETC.
EXAMPLE OF A DISASTER
RECURRING FLOODING Interactions of Planet Earth’s sun, atmosphere, litho- sphere, hydro- sphere, and biosphere cause: Floods.
INTERACTIONS OF EARTH’S CORE, MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE, AND LITHOSPHERE, CAUSE RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
HAITI EARTHQUAKE JANUARY 12, 2010
INTERACTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL LITHOSPHERE WITH THE OCEANIC LITHOSPHERE AND THE HYDROSPHERE CAUSE RECURRING TSUNAMIS
TSUNAMI: JAPAN MARCH 12, 2011
TSUNAMI: OFFSHORE INDONESIA DEC. 26, 2004
RECURRING SEVERE WINDSTORMS: HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, CYCLONES INTERACTIONS OF THE SUN, ATMOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE, TROPOSPHERE, AND LITHOSPHERE
ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010 Alex (H) June 21 Bonnie July 27 Colin Aug 3 Danielle (H) Aug 21 Earl (H) Aug.29 Fiona Aug 30
RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS: INTERACTIONS OF THE CORE, MANTLE, LITHOSPHERE, AND ATMOSPHERE
VOLCANIC ERUPTION: ICELAND APRIL 14, 2010
RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES Planet Earth’s atmospheric- oceanic- lithospheric interactions cause: Droughts
WHEN AN INTERSECTION OCCURS, WILL A DISASTER OCCUR? THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IS “YES” IF THE PEOPLE AND THE COMMUNITY ARE NOT READY THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IS “YES” IF THE PEOPLE AND THE COMMUNITY ARE NOT READY PEOPLEPEOPLE COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY EVENTSEVENTS PP TT SS OO CP
INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY LIVING WITH DISASTER RISK DECREASED CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY
LIVING WITH DISASTER RESILIENCE DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY NO DISASTER THIS TIME CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY
TURNING POINTS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE EDUCATION: PENETRATE SOCIETY IGNORANCE TO ENLIGHTENMENT APATHY TO EMPOWERMENT BOUNDARIES TO NETWORKS ENABLEMENT OF POLITICAL WILL BUILDING EQUITY AND PENETRATING SOCIETY BUILDING EQUITY AND PENETRATING SOCIETY
1. DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES ARE LIKE THE SYSTEM - ANALYSIS PROCEDURES THAT FOUR BLIND PEOPLE WOULD USE TO DESCRIBE AN ELEPHANT
2. DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES MUST CLOSE PRIOR KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND IDENTIFY WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS
CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC,... AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES
KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time of the available knowledge BETWEEN organizations, disciplines, and people will always create uncertainties in choices and differences in capability to achieve disaster resilience.
KNOWLEDGE GAPS DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time WITHIN organizations, disciplines, or individuals that create uncertainties and slow progress towards disaster resilience.
STRENGTHENING WEAK LINKS BENEFITS EVERYONE IMPROVES PREPAREDNESS IMPROVES PROTECTION IMPROVES EM RESPONSEE IMPROVES RECOVERY DISASTER RESILIENCE DISASTER RESILIENCE
3. FROM A DISASTER TO DISASTER RESILIENCE A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF PAST DISASTERS LEADS TO “COUNTER MEASURES” THAT PREVENT RECURRENCES
DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES Design and Implementation of policies and practices: a) to INCREASE CAPACITY of the PEOPLE, and b) to ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY.
STOP INCREASING COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY STOP INCREASING COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY
WHEN THE DIALOGUE IS ON THE CONTINUUMS WE CARE ABOUT, WE ALMOST NEVER LEAVE AYTHING TO CHANCE
“BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES” PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND) PREPAREDNESS (BE READY FOR ALL POSSIBILITIES) PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND) PREPAREDNESS (BE READY FOR ALL POSSIBILITIES)
“BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES” EMERGENCY RESPONSE (ACTIONS TO [PROTECT PEOPLE AND PROPERTY) DISASTER RECOVERY (RESTORING COMMUNITY SYSTEMS TO NORMAL AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE) EMERGENCY RESPONSE (ACTIONS TO [PROTECT PEOPLE AND PROPERTY) DISASTER RECOVERY (RESTORING COMMUNITY SYSTEMS TO NORMAL AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE)
READINESS FOR A POSSIBLE DISASTER “BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR ACADEMIA FUNCTIONAL NETWORKING CHANNELS INFORMATION NETWORKING CHANNELS ORGANIZATION NETWORKING CHANNELS NO DISASTERS COMMUNITYSTAKEHOLDERS Stratec Consulting