Lecture GEOG 270 Fall 2007 October 24, 2007 Joe Hannah, PhD Department of Geography University of Washington

Effects of Global Warming on the Third World

Overview ► The Inequality of Global Warming ► Current & Predicted Environmental Problems ► Global Warming and Security

Inequality of Global Warming ► Greater impacts in Third World Countries  Most are in the tropics - hotter to begin with  Agriculture may make up a huge part of the economy  Sometimes poor soils, limited agric. land  Agriculture often dependent on rain ► Poorer countries often do not have the resources to cope with the consequences

Inequality (cont) ► Rich countries in mid-level latitudes, milder climates ► Economies are less dependent on agriculture:  “The United States, where agriculture represents just 4 percent of the economy, can endure a climatic setback far more easily than a country like Malawi, where 90 percent of the population lives in rural areas and about 40 percent of the economy is driven by rain-fed agriculture.” (Revikin, 2007) ► Rich countries are much more “climate controlled” ► Rich Countries can afford mitigation and recovery (e.g., Perth desalinization plant)

Inequality (cont.) ► “Polluter Pays” Principle ► First World owes Third World a “Climate Debt” "Those least able to cope and least responsible for the greenhouse gases that cause global warming are most affected," says lead author Jonathan Patz, a professor at UW-Madison's Gaylord Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies. "Herein lies an enormous global ethical challenge."

Some Major Effects I. Health Effects of Global Warming II. Sea Level Changes III. Agricultural Decline

I. Health Effects of Global Warming “In a recent chilling assessment, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that human-induced changes in the Earth's climate now lead to at least 5 million cases of illness and more than 150,000 deaths every year.”World Health Organization (Basu, 2005)

Some health effects ► Range of vectors increased into highlands and sub-tropical areas:  Mosquitoes: Malaria, Dengue, Filariasis, Yellow fever  Snails: schistosomiasis  Flies: “river blindness,” “sleeping sickness”

II. Sea Level Changes ► The latest IPCC report estimates that by 2100, sea level will be 28-58cm (11-23in) higher, mostly due to polar ice melting. ► In the interglacial age (125,000 years ago) temps rose 3-5°C, leading to 4-6 meter (13-20 ft) sea-level rise ► May be slow (3mm/year) but just as likely to be very rapid.

See-level Rise in Vietnam

Sea-level Change in Bangladesh

Bangladesh (cont.) Source: UNEP accessed from earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/167 earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/167

III. Agricultural Decline ► “[William] Cline sees global agricultural productivity falling by 3-16 percent by the 2080s, with worse damage in the following century because of even greater warming.” (Aslam, 2007) ► Worse in poor countries:  Crops already at or near temperature tolerance levels  Could experience an average percent decline in agricultural productivity by the 2080s

Agricultural Decline (cont) ► Agriculture is subject to weather ► Storms, drought, flooding – all predicted problems associated with global warming ► decreasing availability of good land ► Concentration of scarce resources – land, water – into the hands of local elite and international corporations ► "At least a billion people live in the poorest countries that are likely to be worst hit by this slow-moving crisis. This will be a serious problem for us all." (Nancy Birdsall, quoted in Aslam, 2007)

Global Warming and Global Security “By weakening rural economies, increasing unemployment and disrupting livelihoods, global warming will increase the frustrations and anger of hundreds of millions of people in vulnerable countries. Especially in Africa, but also in some parts of Asia and Latin America, climate change will undermine already frail governments — and make challenges from violent groups more likely.” Thomas Homer-Dixon, NYT, April 24, dixon.html?_r=1&n=Top/News/Science/Topics/Global%20Warming&oref=slogin

Security Implications (cont) ► Environmental change tends to deepen poverty ► Increases equity gaps ► Severe environmental stress worsens local violent conflicts ► May spur migrations that lead to resource fights ► US Congressional Bill to assess Global Warming in terms of security

Conclusion: Is the Sky Falling?