State of the Carbon Cycle (NACP and GCP): Have components and their uncertainties changed over time? Anna M. Michalak With contributions from: Kevin Bowman,

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Anna M. Michalak Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Advertisements

Regional trends in the land carbon cycle and the underlying mechanisms over the period, S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, G. Bonan, P. Canadell, P.

DGVM runs for Trendy/RECCAP S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, A. Ahlström, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, P. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, C. Huntingford, C. D.,

Multi-Scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – A Systematic Approach for Evaluating Land-Atmosphere Flux Estimates February 4 th,

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought

Improving Understanding of Global and Regional Carbon Dioxide Flux Variability through Assimilation of in Situ and Remote Sensing Data in a Geostatistical.

Carbon and Water Impacts of the Turn of the Century Drought in Western North America Clark University, Graduate School of Geography 2 Northern.

Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy North American Carbon Balance – Results from the Regional Synthesis Project of the North America Carbon.

Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Estimating the North American Carbon Balance Using Inter- Comparison Among Inversions, Regional Terrestrial.

CMS – 2012 Reduction in Bottom-Up Land Surface CO 2 Flux Uncertainty in NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Project through Systematic Multi-Model Evaluation.

Tropical vs. extratropical terrestrial CO 2 uptake and implications for carbon-climate feedbacks Outline: How we track the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 Historic.

Monitoring Effects of Interannual Variation in Climate and Fire Regime on Regional Net Ecosystem Production with Remote Sensing and Modeling D.P. Turner.

Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon.

An Assessment of the Carbon Balance of Arctic Tundra: Comparisons among Observations, Models, and Atmospheric inversions A. David McGuire and Co-authors.

Estimating the contribution of agricultural land use to terrestrial carbon fluxes in the continental US Keith Paustian 1,2, Steven Ogle 2, Scott Denning.

Niall P. Hanan 1, Christopher A. Williams 1, Joseph Berry 2, Robert Scholes 3 A. Scott Denning 1, Jason Neff 4, and Jeffrey Privette 5 1. Colorado State.

Slides for IPCC. Inverse Modeling of CO 2 Air Parcel Sources Sinks wind Sample Changes in CO 2 in the air tell us about sources and sinks Atmospheric.

Andrew Schuh 1, Stephen M. Ogle 1, Marek Uliasz 1, Dan Cooley 1, Tristram West 2, Ken Davis 3, Thomas Lauvaux 3, Liza Diaz 3, Scott Richardson 3, Natasha.

Carbon sequestration in China’s ecosystems, Jingyun Fang Department of Ecology Peking University Feb. 14, 2008.

Evaluating the Role of the CO 2 Source from CO Oxidation P. Suntharalingam Harvard University TRANSCOM Meeting, Tsukuba June 14-18, 2004 Collaborators.

Global Carbon Cycle Feedbacks: From pattern to process Dave Schimel NEON inc.

The North American Carbon Program (NACP) Multi-Scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison (MsTMIP) Project Introductions Overview.

Trends in Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Driven by Hydroclimatic Change since 1948: Data-Driven Analysis using FLUXNET Trends in Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Driven.

West Coast Breakout. Status of west coast project ORCA –Field intensives & data synthesis completed in wildfires, thinning, woody encroachment studies.

Phenological responses of NEE in the subboreal Controls on IAV by autumn zero- crossing and soil thermal profile Dr. Desai.

Optimising ORCHIDEE simulations at tropical sites Hans Verbeeck LSM/FLUXNET meeting June 2008, Edinburgh LSCE, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de.

Regional Model-Data Comparison: An NACP Interim Synthesis Project Coordinators: Andy Jacobson, Mac Post, Debbie Huntzinger, Bob Cook Participants: Dozens.

Paul R. Moorcroft David Medvigy, Stephen Wofsy, J. William Munger, M. Dietze Harvard University Developing a predictive science of the biosphere.

Global net land carbon sink: Results from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) December 9, 2013 AGU Fall Meeting,

Greenhouse gas fluxes derived from regional measurement networks and atmospheric inversions: Results from the MCI and INFLUX experiments Kenneth Davis.

Sharon M. Gourdji, K.L. Mueller, V. Yadav, A.E. Andrews, M. Trudeau, D.N. Huntzinger, A.Schuh, A.R. Jacobson, M. Butler, A.M. Michalak North American Carbon.

Mid-Continent Intensive Campaign Synthesis Stephen M. Ogle Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Co-Investigators: K. Davis, A.

Page 1© Crown copyright WP4 Development of a System for Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation Richard Betts.

The role of the Chequamegon Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study in the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan Ken Davis The Pennsylvania State University The 13 th ChEAS.

Why Establish an Ecosystem-Atmosphere Flux Measurement Network in India? Dennis Baldocchi ESPM/Ecosystem Science Div. University of California, Berkeley.

An Assessment of the Carbon Balance of Arctic Tundra in North America: Comparisons among Observations, Models, and Atmospheric inversions A. David McGuire.

TOP-DOWN CONSTRAINTS ON REGIONAL CARBON FLUXES USING CO 2 :CO CORRELATIONS FROM AIRCRAFT DATA P. Suntharalingam, D. J. Jacob, Q. Li, P. Palmer, J. A. Logan,

The Big Picture To assess the Global Carbon Budget we need information that is ‘Everywhere, All of the Time’ Many Complementary Methods exist, Each with.

Translation to the New TCO Panel Beverly Law Prof. Global Change Forest Science Science Chair, AmeriFlux Network Oregon State University.

Earth System Feedbacks: Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle to Drought and Fire Canberra, Australia 5-8 June 2006 – Part I 8-9 June 2006 – Part II (Australia.

Spatial and temporal patterns of CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes from North America as estimated by process-based ecosystem model Hanqin Tian, Xiaofeng Xu and other.

Integration of biosphere and atmosphere observations Yingping Wang 1, Gabriel Abramowitz 1, Rachel Law 1, Bernard Pak 1, Cathy Trudinger 1, Ian Enting.

Some challenges of model-data- integration a collection of issues and ideas based on model evaluation excercises Martin Jung, Miguel Mahecha, Markus Reichstein,

Satellite data, ecosystem models and site data: contributions of the IGBP flux network to carbon cycle science David Schimel, Galina Churkina, Eva Falge,

North American Carbon Sources and Sinks: Magnitude, Attribution and Uncertainty Anthony King Daniel Hayes Deborah Huntzinger Tristram West Wilfred Post.

International workshop on Asian Greenhouse Gases Budgets Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India September 2011 Pep Canadell*, Prabir Patra.

Site-Level Model-Data Comparison A Proposed NACP Interim Synthesis Project Ken Davis, Peter Thornton, Kevin Schaefer, Dan Riciutto Coordinators.

Variations in Continental Terrestrial Primary Production, Evapotranspiration and Disturbance Faith Ann Heinsch, Maosheng Zhao, Qiaozhen Mu, David Mildrexler,

Using a Global Flux Network—FLUXNET— to Study the Breathing of the Terrestrial Biosphere Dennis Baldocchi ESPM/Ecosystem Science Div. University of California,

Flux Measurements and Systematic Terrestrial Measurements 1.discuss gaps and opportunities What are gaps? 2. brainstorm ideas about collaborative projects.

Precision and accuracy of in situ tower based carbon cycle concentration networks required for detection of the effects of extreme climate events on regional.

LONG-TERM TALL TOWER CO 2 MONITORING IN HUNGARY László HASZPRA Hungarian Meteorological Service Zoltán BARCZA Eötvös Loránd University.

Goal: to understand carbon dynamics in montane forest regions by developing new methods for estimating carbon exchange at local to regional scales. Activities:

A comparison of recent model- and inventory- based estimates of the continental-scale carbon balance of North America A. David McGuire USGS / University.

Using AmeriFlux Observations in the NACP Site-level Interim Synthesis Kevin Schaefer NACP Site Synthesis Team Flux Tower PIs Modeling Teams.

Comparing Simulated and Observed Gross Primary Productivity Kevin Schaefer, Altaf Arain, Alan Barr, Jing Chen, Ken Davis, Dimitre Dimitrov, Ni Golaz, Timothy.

A Modeling and Synthesis Thematic Data Center for the North American Carbon Program Robert B. Cook 1, Yaxing Wei 1, W. Mac Post 1, Peter E. Thornton 1,

I MPACT OF THE EXPANDING MEASUREMENT NETWORK ON TOP - DOWN BUDGETING OF CO 2 SURFACE FLUXES IN N ORTH A MERICA Kim Mueller, Sharon Gourdji, Vineet Yadav,

Success and Failure of Implementing Data-driven Upscaling Using Flux Networks and Remote Sensing Jingfeng Xiao Complex Systems Research Center, University.

Fundamental Dynamics of the Permafrost Carbon Feedback Schaefer, Kevin 1, Tingjun Zhang 1, Lori Bruhwiler 2, and Andrew Barrett 1 1 National Snow and Ice.

All models are wrong … we make tentative assumptions about the real world which we know are false but which we believe may be useful … the statistician.

Spatial Coherence of NEE Response of Different Ecosystems to the Same Climate Anomaly Martha Butler 1, Ken Davis 1, Peter Bakwin 2, David Hollinger 3,

Ring2.psu.edu Natasha Miles, Scott Richardson, Ken Davis, and Eric Crosson American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting 2008: 17 Dec 2008 Temporal and spatial.

Anna M. Michalak Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences University of Michigan Reconciling.

Figure 10. Improvement in landscape resolution that the new 250-meter MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) measurement of gross primary.

CO2 sources and sinks in China as seen from the global atmosphere

Old and Not-So-Old Research Progress/Plans for Ankur Desai Penn State University, Department of Meteorology Cheas 2003 Meeting, Woodruff, WI, 29 June –

Continental Modeling and Analysis of the North American Carbon Cycle

An Integrated View of North American Biosphere Carbon Flux Inter-annual Variability: from satellite CO2 to phenology Junjie Liu1, Kevin Bowman1, Dave.

NACP Site MDC “Are the various measurement and modeling estimates of carbon fluxes consistent with each other - and if not, why?” Simulated vs. observed.

Presentation transcript:

State of the Carbon Cycle (NACP and GCP): Have components and their uncertainties changed over time? Anna M. Michalak With contributions from: Kevin Bowman, Ken Davis, Yuanyuan Fang, Debbie Huntzinger, Tony King, Andrew Richardson, Kevin Schaefer, Christopher Schwalm Source: Griffith et al. (2013)

NOT MUCH Anna M. Michalak

North American Carbon Sources and Sinks: Magnitude, Attribution and Uncertainty Anthony King Daniel Hayes Deborah Huntzinger Tristram West Wilfred Post 4 th NACP All Investigators Meeting February 4, 2013 Albuquerque, New Mexico

Terrestrial sink ( ): meta-synthesis of NACP regional interim synthesis Slide from: Tony King (ORNL)

NACP and RECCAP comparison For reference: SOCCR (2007) estimate was -500 ± 250 Tg C yr -1 NCA (King et al 2012) synthesis estimate was -634 ± 165 Tg C yr -1 Slide from: Tony King (ORNL) UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE

Inter-method comparison Slide from: Tony King (ORNL) UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE

The trouble with … “Small” residuals “Intermediate” scales Boundary conditions

The trouble with … “Small” residuals “Intermediate” scales Boundary conditions

Net sink is small residual of photosynthesis and respiration Huntzinger et al. (Ecol. Model. 2012) e.g. Over NA: GPP: 12.2 to 32.9 PgC yr -1 NEP: -0.7 to 2.2 PgC yr -1

Net annual sink is small residual of large seasonal cycle Huntzinger et al. (Ecol. Model. 2012) e.g. Over NA: Monthly: up to 0.8 PgC mt -1 Annual: up to 2.2 PgC yr -1 ~ 0.2 PgC mt -1

Net biospheric sink is small residual of total flux and fossil fuel emissions King et al. (SOCCR report, 2007) e.g. Over NA: FF: 1.85 PgC yr -1 Bio: ~ 0.5 PgC yr -1

The trouble with … “Small” residuals “Intermediate” scales Boundary conditions

Global constraint and local constraint, but… Requires: Downscaling or upscaling in space and time

Annual mean prior flux (gC/m 2 /day) Annual mean posterior flux (gC/m 2 /day) Post-prior (gC/m 2 /day) Spatial attribution of CO 2 Slide modified from: Kevin Bowman (JPL) PRELIMINARY UNPUBLISHED RESULTS

RECCAP-TransCom3 results Updated inversions Slide from: Tony King (ORNL) UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE

Upscaling of eddy covariance data Slide from Martin Jung, MPI- BGC Figures from: Martin Jung (MPI-BGC)

The trouble with … “Small” residuals “Intermediate” scales Boundary conditions

e.g. 0.5ppm uncertainty on incoming [CO 2 ]

Gourdji et al. (BG 2012)

The trouble with … “Small” residuals “Intermediate” scales Boundary conditions

Paths forward… “Small” residuals “Intermediate” scales Boundary conditions

Combine multiple estimates… “Small” residuals “Intermediate” scales Boundary conditions e.g. Averaging, binning, prescribing simulation protocol, etc.

Inter-method comparison Slide from: Tony King (ORNL) UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE

Seasonal spatial patterns Gourdji et al. (BG 2012); Yadav and Michalak (GMD, in press)

RECCAP-TRENDY Terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) results for North America Slide from: Tony King (ORNL) UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE

Paths forward… “Small” residuals “Intermediate” scales Boundary conditions

Tackle bigger components… Big signals “Intermediate” scales Boundary conditions e.g. Component fluxes, phenology, seasons, etc.

Gross Primary Productivity Net Ecosystem Productivity Huntzinger et al. (Ecol. Model. 2012)

NACP Regional Interim Synthesis Activity Long-Term Mean ( ) Summer (June, July, August) Net Ecosystem Productivity Huntzinger et al. (2012) Ecological Modeling Slide from: Debbie Huntzinger (NAU)

Combining multiple estimates of big components Big signals “Intermediate” scales Boundary conditions

NACP Regional Interim Synthesis vs. MsTMIP Mean GPP for North America ( ) 5 models (CLM, DLEM, LPJ, ORCHIDEE, VEGAS) Range Interquartile range Median Does strict protocol help to isolate sources if different in model output? Slide from: Debbie Huntzinger (NAU) PRELIMINARY UNPUBLISHED RESULTS

MsTMIP models Steady-state results 10 models GPP varies by factor of 2 in tropics Soil carbon pool size in NHL ranges from 5 – 60 kg C m -2 Total living biomass varies by factor of 3.5 in tropics Range Interquartile range Median Slide from: Debbie Huntzinger (NAU) PRELIMINARY UNPUBLISHED RESULTS

Compare simulated GPP to other GPP products: MODIS-GPP (Zhao and Running, 2010) MPI-BGC (Jung et al., 2011, Beer et al., 2010) Slide modified from: Debbie Huntzinger (NAU) PRELIMINARY UNPUBLISHED RESULTS

Group model estimates of GPP based on model’s treatment of photosynthesis, disturbance and other factors. The entire modeling framework influences a model’s results Huntzinger et al. (2012) Ecological Modeling Binning / grouping of models Slide modified from: Debbie Huntzinger (NAU)

Paths forward… “Small” residuals “Intermediate” scales Boundary conditions

Tackle different scales… “Small” residuals Non-continental scales Boundary conditions e.g. Eddy covariance towers, regional intensives, etc.

Regional measurement campaigns Midcontinent intensive, INFLUX, ? Gulf coast intensive, ? N. American tower CO2 network circa 2008 Slide from: Ken Davis (Penn State)

Schuh et al, in press, GCB Atmospheric inversions and agricultural inventory agree! Inversions and inventory have similar uncertainty bounds! Slide from: Ken Davis (Penn State)

Tackle different scales for big components Big signals Non-continental scales Boundary conditions

Phenology (Richardson et al.) Early/late uptake means positive GPP biasEarly/late uptake means positive GPP bias Models need better phenologyModels need better phenology Slide from: Kevin Schaefer (NSIDC) NACP Site Synthesis

GPP Biases (Schaefer et al., 2012) GPP Bias (  mol m -2 s -1 ) Fall too late Spring too early Need Low Temperature Shutoff Need Improved LUE/Vcmax Slide from: Kevin Schaefer (NSIDC)

Tackle specific features… “Small” residuals “Intermediate” scales Patterns e.g. Patterns, trends, anomalies, sensitivities…

Slide from: Yuanyuan Fang (Carnegie Inst. Sci.) Fine scale inversion for selecting TBMs at biome scale from among NACP RIS models with sub-diurnal variability

Tackle features of big components Big signals “Intermediate” scales Patterns

Anomaly = Drought – Baseline Mean Reduced Carbon Uptake and Evaporation, Increased Heating Carbon uptake decreased by 37% and 160% in forests and grasslands increased in woody savannas… respiration slowed more than productivity Evaporation decreased by 25%, 5%, and 16% for ENF, GRA, and WSA temperatures increased by ~0.4 °C Slide from: Christopher Schwalm “Carbon and Water Impacts of the Turn of the Century Drought in Western North America ”

*Anomaly = Drought Mean – Baseline Mean Reduction in Carbon Uptake Offset 45% of Normal Sink Term [Tg C y -1 ] SourceDrought Anomaly* Baseline Flux Percent Reduction GPPMODIS % GPPUpscaled FLUXNET % NEPInversions % 44% NEPFlux Tower Network % Slide from: Christopher Schwalm

Paths forward…. Big signals Non-continental scales Patterns

Address first and look for convergence

Acknowledgments: Cited intercomparison, synthesis, and collaborative observational efforts NOAA ESRL Cooperative Air Sampling Network FLUXNET / AmeriFlux TransCom3 SOCCR MCI NACP Site Synthesis NACP RCIS TRENDY RECCAP NASA Carbon Monitoring System National Climate Assessment MsTMIP