New Horizons in Paleoclimatology Toby Ault 5.6.2008.

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Presentation transcript:

New Horizons in Paleoclimatology Toby Ault

Overview:  Proxy-model integration  Experiment design  Results  Future work

Overview:  Proxy-model integration  Experiment design  Results  Future work

Overview:  Proxy-model integration  Experiment design  Results  Future work

Overview:  Proxy-model integration  Experiment design  Results  Future work

Overview:  Proxy-model integration  Experiment design  Results  Future work

 Proxy-Model Integration

10’s of km GCM Data: Proxy Data: 100’s of km Image from:

1°x1° (~111 km)

Case example: the Monsoon

August, 2006 PRISM mean precip. (mm/day)

Observational Monsoon 0.5˚x 0.5˚ JJA mean precip. (mm/day) *Mitchell, T. D., and P. D. Jones (2005), An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids, International Journal of Climatology, 25(6),

CCSM3’s Monsoon JAS mean precip. (mm/day)

CCSM3’s Monsoon JAS mean precip. (mm/day) What about the future?

*Joellen Russell, Pers. comm. GFDL - Weaker CCSM - No change UKMO - Stronger

*Joellen Russell, Pers. comm. GFDL - Weaker CCSM - No change UKMO - Stronger No good consensus… Absent in other models… Turn to proxies!

Mid-Holocene climate

Proxies in N. America

Wetter summers… OR …drier winters!

Playa Lakes: Occasionally filled during Mid-Holocene Likely monsoon related…

Speleothems: Stronger Monsoon Connection to North Atlantic ITCZ shifted northward?

Modeling 6ka climates

PMIP (Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project) Mean JJA precipitation for CCSM 6ka simulation

Harrison et al., 2003 CCSM3-JJA: 6ka-0ka (mm/day)

Harrison et al., 2003 CCSM3-JJA: 6ka-0ka (mm/day) No Change?

10’s of km GCM Data: Proxy Data: 100’s of km Image from:

10’s of km GCM Data: Proxy Data: 100’s of km Can regional downscaling bridge this gap?

 Experiment Design

Model: WRF Nesting: None Physics: Defaults X-domain: 119˚W to 110˚W Y-domain: 20˚N to 34˚N Resolution: ~30km Time: Aug. 2-25, 2006  T: 3hrs

Boundary Conditions: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 2.5˚x 2.5˚ resolution

 Results

Means Precipitation (mm/day) NNRPWRF

Variance Precipitation variance (mm/day) 2 NNRPWRF

August NNRP Link to animation

August WRF Link to animation

Smaller scale Better representation of mechanisms

Future Work 

1. Comparison with observations 2. Better analysis of dynamics 3. Cumulus parameterization scheme 4. Downscaling modern CCSM3 runs 5. Paleoclimate downscaling

1. Comparison with observations 2. Better analysis of dynamics 3. Cumulus parameterization scheme 4. Downscaling modern CCSM3 runs 5. Paleoclimate downscaling

1. Comparison with observations 2. Better analysis of dynamics 3. Cumulus parameterization scheme 4. Downscaling modern CCSM3 runs 5. Paleoclimate downscaling

1. Comparison with observations 2. Better analysis of dynamics 3. Cumulus parameterization scheme 4. Downscaling modern CCSM3 runs 5. Paleoclimate downscaling

1. Comparison with observations 2. Better analysis of dynamics 3. Cumulus parameterization scheme 4. Downscaling modern CCSM3 runs 5. Paleoclimate downscaling

1. Comparison with observations 2. Better analysis of dynamics 3. Cumulus parameterization scheme 4. Downscaling modern CCSM3 runs 5. Paleoclimate downscaling

Acknowledgements: Jason Criscio, Andy Penny, and CCIT - THANKS!