Briefing for Central America and Hispaniola May 10, 2011 Miliaritiana Robjhon Apante season performance Observed Long-term.

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Presentation transcript:

Briefing for Central America and Hispaniola May 10, 2011 Miliaritiana Robjhon Apante season performance Observed Long-term Average Atlantic side (southern parts) of Central America received insufficient (exceeding) rainfall.

Apante season anomaly (mm) Below-average rainfall was observed across northern/eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua Remainder of Central America received seasonably totals Northern Haiti received below- average rainfall

TRMM weekly totals (mm) A significant reduction of rainfall, particularly across northern Central America Reduction of rainfall over Hispaniola

Measured rainfall (mm) on GTS: May 3 – May 9, 2011 Puerto Barrios: 237mm Guatemala: 1mm Ilopango: 53mm Tegucigalpa: 3mm San Jose/Santa Maria: 0mm Tocumen: 34mm Flores: 10mm Santa Ana: 13mm

7-day rainfall anomaly (mm) Western Guatemala, El Salvador, and northern Costa Rica received below- average rainfall during the last week Central department of Haiti received below-average rainfall

30-day rainfall anomaly (mm) Growing rainfall deficits in southern Guatemala, El Salvador, western Haiti, and western Nicaragua Persistence of rainfall surpluses in the Gulf of Honduras and Panama

Time series of rainfall (mm) Gonaives, Haiti Deficits: ~37.0mm Quetzaltenango, Guatemala Rica Deficits: ~40.0mm

Number of rain days: Central America A decrease (increase) in the number of rain days across the Pacific (Atlantic) side of Central America

Number of rain days: Hispaniola An overall drop in number of rain days over Haiti during the last 30 days

Pentadal WRSI: Central America Deteriorating vegetation conditions in local areas (Huehuetenago) of Guatemala and (Ocotepeque and Lempira) of Honduras Improving conditions in the Gracias A Dios dept. of Honduras and Atlantico regions of Nicaragua APR 26 – APR 30MAY 1 – MAY 5

Pentadal WRSI: Hispaniola Declining vegetation conditions across western Haiti A slight improvement in the south APR 26 – APR 30MAY 1 – MAY 5

Synoptic conditions during May 1 – May 7, 2011 SLP anomaly 700-hPa zonal wind anomaly 700-hPa RH anomaly

Atmospheric circulation

(Experimental) Caribbean monthly rainfall outlook by NCEP coupled model May: below-average (above-average) rainfall in northern (southern Caribbean) CA June: below-average rainfall in northern CA, neutral elsewhere July: Relatively neutral across CA

Rainfall forecast during the next 7 days Return of moderate to heavy rains over much of Central America Localized rains expected southeastern Haiti

Hispaniola