STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2011* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *To be updated upon release of OSU Econometric Forecast in late November.

GENERAL REVENUE TRENDS Income vs. Expenditures (In Millions) Actual Collections Appropriations $772.8 $527.2 ($104.3) $503 $621.3 OFFICIAL ESTIMATE $5,916.4m $5,665.4m $5,759.2m Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2011 – Ave. 3.1% Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2011) – Ave. 2.31% Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP (est. 8.22%) and ROADS increases (11 Session) Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2012 Act – Normalized Ave. 2.97% $5,969.3m $267.9 $156.9 $429.1 Revenue and expenditure growth rates are based on trends from OSF actual numbers and effects of current law. $5,236.3

General Revenue Fund Sources Trend Based Projections, In Millions (TO BE UPDATED WITH OSU ECONOMETRIC FORECAST) Ave.3.0% Growth Ave. 0.1% Growth Ave. 0.2% Growth Ave. 4.0% Growth Ave. 4.4% Growth OSF ACTUAL10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND –BASED OSF PROJECTIONS FY-2012 – FY-2014 SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS, LESS INC TAX CHANGE JUNE BOE EST

General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources (In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year) 1.6% 4.4% 4.2% (17.3%) OHLAP or ROADS Funding Not Removed (Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax) (TO BE UPDATED WITH OSU ECONOMETRIC FORECAST) 2.8% 12.6% (6.7%) ACTUALS Based on OSF 10-Yr Normalized Trend-Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax Credits, Less Pers Inc Tax Rate Change 5.4% JUNE BOE ESTIMATE