Climate Change in South Asia: Trends and impacts -Netra Timsina Presented to seminar on Envisioning South Asia held on January 2010 at Dhaka

Major River Basins on HKH

Climate change and and Hinskush : Complexity between nature and politics -Netra Timsina Presented to Climate Conference 1-2 January 2010, Kathmandu organized by ANFPa, SAAPE

RankCountryTotal emission (thousand metric tons of emissions Per capita emissions/Tons/Ca pita 1China6,103, United States5,752, Russia1,564, India1,510, Japan1,293, Germany805, United Kingdom568, Canada544, South Korea475, Italy474,

Temperature trends in the Himalayas Annual Mean-Maximum Temperature Trend for 1977–2000 in Nepal. (After Shrestha et al., 1997) Greater warming at higher elevation –up to 0.32 deg C per decade (Tibet) Nepal annual range –0.04 to 0.06 deg C per decade greater at higher elevation 1.2 degree celsius by 2030, 1.7 degree celcius by 2050 and 3.0 degree celcius by 2100 compare to pre 2000 baseline

Retreat of Glaciers in Himalayas Rapid retreat of greater Himalayan glaciers in comparison to the global average (Source: Dyurgerov and Meier 2005).

Contribution of glacier in water resources River basinMean Discharge (m 3 /s) Contribution of Glacial melt in river flow (%) Water availability per person (m 3 /person/year) Indus 5, Ganges 18, ,447 Brahmaputra 19, ,274 Irrawaddy 13,565Unknown13,089 Salween 1, ,876 Mekong 11, ,091 Yangtze 34, ,909 Yellow 1, Tarim (Source: Xu et al., 2007)

The Melting Glaciers, Impacts on availability of water  As glaciers melt, river runoff will initially increase in winter or spring but eventually will decrease as a result of loss of ice resources  This will be likely unfavourable for downstream agriculture  This could seriously affect half billion people in the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya region and a quarter billion people in China who depend on glacial melt for their water supplies.

Melting Glaciers, Impacts on availability of Water The current trends of glacial melts suggest that the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra and other rivers across the northern Indian plain could likely become seasonal rivers in the near future Between 20 and 40% reduction of runoff per capita in NW provinces China is likely by the end of 21st century

GLOF The most recent event was occurred in 1985, when Dig Tsho, a lake in the headwaters of the Koshi River, breached after an avalanche and slid into the river, overtopping the dam. The event destroyed hydro-electricity projects, bridges, houses and farm land not only in Nepal, but also to Bihar state of India (NCVST ISET, 2009).

The monitoring result of Shorong Himal since 1978 shows that the retreat until 1989 was 30 m, which is equivalent to 12 m thinning of the glacier surface. Glacier surface has further retreated by 14 m after 1998.

Impact on agriculture Small peasants are most affected Decline in rainfall from November to April adversely affect the winter and spring crops. Decline in food production has threatened to the food security of people.

Climate change-natural phenomena vs political complexity Rise in temperature has been the political economic issues.

Political complexity… The current debate about keeping the temperature below 2 degree celcius has been tough contestations between the poor and rich and developing countries’ political spheres

Political complexity Stabilizing at 2 degree celcius require major shift in lifestyle, a veritable energy revolution and a transformation on how we manage land and forests.

Act now… Act now, act together and act differently -that are the steps that can put a climate smart world within our reach.

Climate change: an issue of justice Climate Justice