QUANTIFICATION OF DISASTER IMPACTS 1. Damage costs and estimated losses 2. Dynamic effect on growth and other variables 3. Composition of damage (by sectors and type) Data from ECLAC led disaster assessments

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation2 UN - ECLAC IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATINA AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN – (based on ECLAC assessments) PERIOD AFFECTED POPULATION TOTAL IMPACT (CONSTANT 2004 VALUE) Deaths Directly affected population TOTAL TOTAL DAMAGE (to assets) LOSSES (in flows) External impact ,17635,463,890232, , , ,221.0 YEARLY AVERAGE (on the basis of ECLAC assessed disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean) 3,4901,074,6637,038.24,555.62,437.12,340.0

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation3 UN - ECLAC DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS (as observed in ECLAC assessments, ) AFFECTED POPULATION TOTAL IMPACT (constant 2004 prices) DeathsDirectly affected population TOTALDAMAGE (to assets) LOSSES (in flows) External sector impact METEOROLOGICAL (CLIMATIC) EVENTS 50,42424,945,145118,92673,38243,30435,600 GEOMORPHOLOGICAL (SISMIC, VOLCANIC) EVENTS 64,75210,518,745113,33476,95337,12041,621 Droughts352,200,00010,5995,8884,7123,141 TOTAL ASSESSED EVENTS115,17635,463,890232, , , ,221.0 Meteorological as % of total44%70%51%49%54%46% Droughts as % of total0.07%8.82%8.91%8.02%10.88%8.82% Damage composition total 64.7%34.6%33.2% Meteorological or climatic 61.7%36.4%29.9% Non-climatic 67.9%32.8%36.7% Droughts 55.5%44.5%29.6%

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation4 UN - ECLAC Human toll of disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean ( )

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation5 UN - ECLAC

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation6 UN - ECLAC Global dynamic effects Macroeconomic effects Repercussions are felt in the national, local or regional economy as a consequence of the disaster (natural event) Repercussions are felt in the national, local or regional economy as a consequence of the disaster (natural event) It may last for several years after the disaster, depending on the characteristics of the event, its magnitude and the sectors / activities affected It may last for several years after the disaster, depending on the characteristics of the event, its magnitude and the sectors / activities affected Are measurable as Are measurable as  Growth rate and level of GDP  Performance of the external sector (imports, exports, transfers and investment)  Performance of public finances  Price variations and inflation

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation7 UN - ECLAC CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on gross capital formation * * * * TIME GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION ACTUAL CAPITAL FORMATION POTENTIAL GROWTH PATH *DISASTER

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation8 UN - ECLAC HUMAN -Health -Education NATURAL -Clean water -Clean air -Biodiversity and ecosystem (microclimate) FINANCIAL -Access to credit -Land tenure and ownership PHYSICAL -Type and quality of settlement and housing SOCIAL -Social networks (security and solidarity) -Family ties and extended family -Violence and security

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation9 UN - ECLAC

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation10 UN - ECLAC

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation11 UN - ECLAC PROCESSES (DRIVERS) VULNERABILITIES (RESPONSES) CLIMATE STRESSORS COPING CAPACITY SENSITIVITYEXPOSURES MITIGATION MEASURES INSTITUTIONAL ORGANIZATION ADAPTATION MEASURES COMPETITION FOR RESOURCES WITH OTHER INVESTMENTS NEEDS

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation12 UN - ECLAC El Niño effects in the main economic variables of Andean countries

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation13 UN - ECLAC Macroeconomic effect: decreased national growth rates

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation14 UN - ECLAC MITCH DROUGHT

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation15 UN - ECLAC MITCH DROUGHT

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation16 UN - ECLAC MITCH EARTHQUAKE DROUGHT STAN

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation17 UN - ECLAC Hurricane Stan in El Salvador: Breakdown of damage and losses Sector and sub sector Damage, Millions US$ Losses, TOTAL SocialHousingEducationHealth ProductiveAgricultureIndustryCommerceTourism Infrastructure Water and sanitation ElectricityTransport Environment Emergency and relief TOTAL

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation18 UN - ECLAC MITCH DROUGHT STAN

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation19 UN - ECLAC Hurricane Stan in Guatemala: Breakdown of damage and losses Sector and sub sector Damage, Millions of Quetzales Losses, Millions Quetzales Total SocialHousingEducationHealth ,1, , , ProductiveAgricultureIndustryCommerceTourism , , Infrastructure Water and sanitation ElectricityTransport1, , , , , , ,376.83, ,267.8 Environment Emergency and relief TOTAL3,200.34,310.97,511.2

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation20 UN - ECLAC MITCH DROUGHT

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation21 UN - ECLAC

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation22 UN - ECLAC Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Gujarat, India

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation23 UN - ECLAC Summary of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, by country CountryDamageLosses Total Impact Magnitude, Impact/GDP India , Indonesia2,9201,5314, Maldives Sri Lanka 1, , Thailand5081,6902, Total Region 5,5974,3679,9631.0

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation24 UN - ECLAC Breakdown of 2004 Tsunami impact

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation25 UN - ECLAC Absolute and relative impact of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on main affected countries

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation26 UN - ECLAC Tsunami impact: Gap between forecasted and actual GDP growth in

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation27 UN - ECLAC 2004 Tsunami impact in India: Absolute and relative value of damage and losses by affected states

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation28 UN - ECLAC ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ATLANTIC 2004 HURRICANE SEASON Island / State Economic impact Event Millions of US$ Assessed by ECLAC 6,059 Ivan, Frances and Jeanne a/ Bahamas551 Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne Cayman Islands 3,432Ivan Dominican Republic 296 Tropical storm Jeanne Granada889Ivan Haití296Jeanne Jamaica595Ivan Florida (a) 30,000 Jeanne, Charley and Frances Cuba (b) 1,500Frances Total (including Cuba y Florida) 37,559 a) Based on information provided by insurance and reinsurance companies (Munich Re) b) Official estimates from t he Cuban government, may not include losses

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation29 UN - ECLAC 2004 Atlantic Hurricanes: Relative and absolute impact of damage and losses by affected country / state

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation30 UN - ECLAC Damage profile in the Caribbean Hurricane 2004 season

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation31 UN - ECLAC Events in the Americas (2005)

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation32 UN - ECLAC The status of international (scientific, academic, political) debate Climate is changing, it is partly anthropogenic (by how much, a matter of debate) Climate is changing, it is partly anthropogenic (by how much, a matter of debate) Trends in meteorological evolution and on weighed losses is not clearly discernible Trends in meteorological evolution and on weighed losses is not clearly discernible Current value of losses is on the increase Current value of losses is on the increase Resources to rebuild or recuperate are not only increasing but crowding out other investments Resources to rebuild or recuperate are not only increasing but crowding out other investments This has implications for the financial and insurance sectors This has implications for the financial and insurance sectors This has a negative impact on development investment needs and resources in the developing countries (considering the wide varying degrees of needs and capabilities of developing countries: from SIDS to rapid growing emerging economies or oil/resource rich countries) This has a negative impact on development investment needs and resources in the developing countries (considering the wide varying degrees of needs and capabilities of developing countries: from SIDS to rapid growing emerging economies or oil/resource rich countries)

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation33 UN - ECLAC Issues in the international cooperation agenda: United Nations world conferences and MDGs United Nations world conferences and MDGs Poverty reduction strategies of IFIs Poverty reduction strategies of IFIs Kyoto convention and sustainable development agenda Kyoto convention and sustainable development agenda Mauritius agenda for SIDS on impacts of climate change Mauritius agenda for SIDS on impacts of climate change Hyogo Plan of Action and Hyogo Declaration on natural disasters Hyogo Plan of Action and Hyogo Declaration on natural disasters World trade negotiations (Doha or development round and FTAs: environmental and climate goods lacking) World trade negotiations (Doha or development round and FTAs: environmental and climate goods lacking)

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation34 UN - ECLAC The need for financial protection instruments (both to extreme events and climate change) Insufficient use of insurance and other risk transfer mechanisms Insufficient use of insurance and other risk transfer mechanisms Inappropriate pricing of risk in the market: Inappropriate pricing of risk in the market:  A vicious circle in which “public goods” (the state’s responsibility to protect lives and property) become public calamities  A virtuous circle to be promoted: transparent risk appropriation of risk, pricing and valuation leading to risk reduction investment

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation35 UN - ECLAC Inappropriate transfer of risk and “free riders” Risk materializes in disasters Risk materializes in disasters Transfer occurs in a “cascade” effect: Transfer occurs in a “cascade” effect:  From the individual to the community  From the community to the local government  From the local government to the national government  From the country to the international community Appropriation and social solidarity to share the cost of providing public goods Appropriation and social solidarity to share the cost of providing public goods

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation36 UN - ECLAC Policy implications Exposure to disaster risks is not unlike exposure to other risks (financial, commercial, social, political) Exposure to disaster risks is not unlike exposure to other risks (financial, commercial, social, political) Exposure to risk has a positive correlation with poverty: disasters impacts are not distributed homogeneously neither in location nor in impact Exposure to risk has a positive correlation with poverty: disasters impacts are not distributed homogeneously neither in location nor in impact Social impact is regressive: direct linkage between vulnerability and poverty, vulnerability and marginalization, vulnerability and gender or ethnicity Social impact is regressive: direct linkage between vulnerability and poverty, vulnerability and marginalization, vulnerability and gender or ethnicity

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation37 UN - ECLAC Appropriation to promote reduction of risk (in the face of extreme events and climate change)  Need for regulatory and institutional changes  Markets as clearing houses to price risk (beyond insurance)  Need for social policies for compensation, promotion and solidarity  Risk management is an investment / business opportunity Imperfect markets require governmental intervention Imperfect markets require governmental intervention