ECONOMIC INACTIVITY OF POPULATION: KEY CHALLENGE TO THE LABOUR MARKET IN BULGARIA Kremena Borissova-Marinova, Assoc. Prof., PhD Vienna, March 2015 Institute for Population and Human Studies - BAS Demography Department

Object of this research - economic inactivity of working age population in Bulgaria in the transition period to market economy and evolution prospects to 2030; Selected characteristics – sex, age, marital status, place of residence, levels of employment and education; Limitations of the study - availability and quality of information for studying this subject over the past two decades; changes in the scope of working age population (increase of retirement age).

Dynamics of economically inactive, unemployed and employed populations in Bulgaria,

Distributions of economically inactive and unemployed populations by sex in Bulgaria,

Distribution of economically inactive population by aggregated age groups in Bulgaria,

Distribution of unemployed by aggregated age groups in Bulgaria,

Distribution of economically inactive and unemployed men by marital status in Bulgaria, 1992 and 2001

Distribution of economically inactive and unemployed women by marital status in Bulgaria, 1992 and 2001

Distribution of economically inactive population by place of residence in Bulgaria,

Distribution of economically inactive population by level of education in Bulgaria,

Age-specific inactivity profiles of men and women in Bulgaria, , in %

Age-specific unemployment profiles of men and women in Bulgaria, , in %

Total inactivity rates of men and women in Bulgaria over the base period and projected rates according to the 3 variants of the scenario, , in %

Age-specific inactivity profiles of men and women in Bulgaria, according to the realistic variant of the scenario, , in %

Age-specific inactivity profiles of men and women in Bulgaria, , according to the pessimistic variant of the scenario, in %

Conclusions significant changes in inactivity and unemployment levels in Bulgaria over the past 20 years; long-standing increase of inactive population, converging levels of inactivity among men and women, rapid process of ageing affecting both sexes, prevalence of persons with low education levels; evolution of potentially inactive population – result from the long-term trends in population reproduction and changes in labour market set in the scenario hypotheses; possible effects of the decreasing economic inactivity could offset the unfavourable demographic development in the base and projection periods;

Conclusions minimal changes in age-specific inactivity levels according to the 3rd variant would lead to huge reduction of potential labour force and to unusual worsening of the demographic and economic burden’s indices. Incorporation in the labour market of that part of economically inactive population which would like to work emerges as a substantial factor for economic growth and social development of the Bulgarian society.

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