European Environment Agency An EEA / ETC ACM project on emission scenarios John van Aardenne 7th meeting of the TFEIP’s projections expert panel 2nd May 2011 Stockholm, Sweden

European Environment Agency In SOER 2010 emission projections and scenarios of air pollutants and greenhouse gases is included: (1) SOER (2010), air pollution.

European Environment Agency In SOER 2010 emission projections and scenarios of air pollutants and greenhouse gases is included: (2) SOER (2010), climate mitigation.

European Environment Agency AP and GHG: often same emission sources: efforts to control one group of pollutant can lead to benefits and disadvantages (SOER (2010), air pollution)

European Environment Agency Results from recent assessments highlight benefits and disadvantages in emission reduction of AP and GHG Reducing cost of air pollution abatement. Under C&E package costs of implementing future air pollution policy in Europe may be reduced by around EUR 16 billion per year (EC, 2008/SOER 2010) Impact on human health. JRC (2010): C&E package would reduce loss of statistical life expectancy due to PM in Europe with 2 months (by 2030). In 2000: ~6-8 mnths. UNEP (2011): implementation of both CH4 and BC measures will in 2030 and beyond result in annually 2.5 million avoided premature death. Impact of air pollution abatement (HTAP, 2010) Decreasing NOx emissions will increase lifetime of CH4 Reduction in PM containing cooling aerosols would increase warming Reduction in PM containing BC benefit for both AP and GHG

European Environment Agency In order to understand our environmental assessments we need to understand what’s in the underlying scenarios (uncertainty in trends but also methods/assumption) Figure from HTAP 2010 Chapter A3 (in press)

European Environment Agency EEA has asked its ETC/ACM to make an assessment on the applicability of available emission scenarios to study the effect of air and climate policies on the atmospheric composition and its impact. Subtask 1: Evaluation of available emission scenarios on how they address the effect of air and climate policies on the atmospheric composition of greenhouse gas and air pollutants Subtask 2: Evaluation of the interaction between air quality and climate policies on the short term (2020) and the long term (2050). Subtask 3: Updating of the core set indicator CSI013 (GHG concentration) with data for 2009 and with new/latest available scenarios Team: H. Eerens (PBL), L.Rouil (INERIS), R Koelemeijer, J van Minnen (PBL), F Sauter, F de Leeuw, G Velders (RIVM), L. Rouil, nn (INERIS), G Mellios (Emisia) EEA proj. man.: J. van Aardenne

European Environment Agency Subtask 1: Evaluation of available emission scenarios on how they address the effect of air and climate policies on the atmospheric composition of greenhouse gas and air pollutants Take stock of finished or ongoing activities with a focus on emission scenarios Provide an overview of the various emissions projections/backcast scenarios Evaluate: the extend these scenarios include short term (2020) and long term (2050) emission trends of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases how EU policy making is represented (e.g. IPCC scenarios, WEO outlook studies, etc) how to integrate EU-scale scenarios in global emission scenarios how to downscale country emission scenarios from global/regional scenario studies. Prepare recommendations for a consistent set of AP and GHG emission scenarios applying or integrating existing emission scenarios Prepare a database with a consistent set of AP and GHG emission scenarios Add. Task: Future (2050) emissions of the European vehicle fleet.

European Environment Agency Subtask 1: Evaluation of available emission scenario (~ 35)