Dan Kašpar, Klára Hulíková Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of Demography and Geodemography

Why to study?  Convergence of mortality assumed by theories of demographic transition and epidemiological transition  Development of mortality in 20 th century

Content  1. Main convergence/divergence tendencies of mortality in Europe

Content  1. Main convergence/divergence tendencies of mortality in Europe  Convergence tendencies of mortality of selected country to other countries 2. Life expectancy at the age of 65

Content  1. Main convergence/divergence tendencies of mortality in Europe  Convergence tendencies of mortality of selected country to other countries 2. Life expectancy at the age of Main groups of causes of death

1. Main convergence/divergence tendencies of mortality in Europe  1a) Common statistics  1b) Use of population weights

Data  Human Mortality Database  28 countries Including East and West Germany  1959–2009  Life expectancy at birth, males

Division into regions  Southern Europe  Western Europe  Northern Europe  Central Europe  Eastern Europe

Life expectancy at birth, selected European countries, males, 1959–2009 9

1a) Common statistics

Selected basic statistics of life expectancy at birth in selected 28 European countries, males Interquartile range Range

Southern, Western, Northern Europe Central, Eastern Europe

2b) Use of population weights

Cumulative distribution of European population by life expectancy at birth, males 1959 – interquartile range 4,1 years 2009 – interquartile range 13,7 years

Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 1959, males 93 % of population

Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 1969, males

Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 1979, males

Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 1989, males

Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 1999, males

Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 2009, males

2. Convergence tendencies of mortality of selected country to other countries: Life expectancy at the age of 65  Possible future convergence of one population to other populations with lower mortality

 ”Since 1991 life expectancy gains in the Czech Republic and Poland have outpaced those in Japan, with an increase of 3.3 years compared to Japan's 2.0 years. At that pace differential, it would take time for them to catch up Japan (42 years for the Czech Republic and even 48 years for Poland).” (Vallin, Meslé, 2004, pp. 24)

Steps  1. Reference population Czech Republic  2. Indicator(s) of mortality Life expectancy at the age of 65 (e 65 )  3. Starting point, period, regression function 2009; 1991–2009; simple linear function  4. Time to equalization of functions

Time to equalization

Czech Republic DIVERGENCE (faster speed of development in period 1991–2009 in state A)

Time to equalization Czech Republic CONVERGENCE (slower speed of development in period 1991–2009 in state A)

Data  Human Mortality Database  Life expectancy at the age of 65  27 countries  1991–2009

Differences in e 65 between the Czech Republic and other European countries in 2009 for males (left) and females (right) Use only countries with higher e 65 in 2009

Hypothetical number of years from the year 2009 necessary for equalization of the values of e 65 in the Czech Republic and other European countries

3. Convergence tendencies of mortality of selected country to other countries (main groups of causes of death)

Data  WHO Mortality Database  25 European countries  ICD-10 only  Studied period: 1994–2012 (data were not fully available for all the countries)  Groups of causes of death Cardiovascular diseases Neoplasms External causes

Methods  Age-specific mortality rates (where data were available) and standardized mortality rates (according to groups of causes of death and sex) Standard population: European Standard Population 2013  Modelling of the recent trend: logistic function  Extrapolation of the logistic function  Time to equalization of values of the logistic function for a reference country (Czech Republic) and all the other countries – according to groups of causes and sex

Convergence with Poland for males, not for females Convergence with Hungary for females, not for males No countries where there are convergence tendencies with the Czech Republic in near future Divergent tendencies with all other countries (or equal tempo of change) with them Only states corresponding with the applied scale are displayed

Convergence with Sweden, Norway, Portugal and Spain for both sexes Convergence with Bulgaria and Denmark for males, not for females Convergence with Belgium and France for females, not for males Relatively homogeneous group of countries according to mortality caused by neoplasms, for both sexes. However, this countries are different from other European countries Only states corresponding with the applied scale are displayed

Relatively homogeneous group of countries according to mortality caused by external causes, for both sexes Latvia – exceptionally high value among females, more time needed for homogeneity with other countries Italy, Spain – exceptionally low value among males, more time needed for homogeneity with other countries Only states corresponding with the applied scale are displayed

Summary  Main tendencies of mortality in Europe since the second half of the 20 th century  Way of quantification and visualization of convergence and divergence tendencies of mortality of one population to other populations

Conclusion  There exist many reasons why and many possibilities how to study convergence and divergence tendencies of mortality

The study was supported by the Charles University in Prague, project GA UK No