Better Living Through Meteorology Mark S. Roulston Oxford University and London School of Economics.

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Presentation transcript:

Better Living Through Meteorology Mark S. Roulston Oxford University and London School of Economics

Better Living Through Meteorology Economic impacts of weather severe weather events biggest cost to insurance companies in U.K. 1 O C drop in temperature increases electricity demand by over 200 MW modest anomalies as important to the economy as severe weather events

Better Living Through Meteorology Value of weather forecasts weather impacts the economy forecasts have skill out to over a week and this horizon will increase how can forecasts benefit the economy?

Better Living Through Meteorology

How much soup should I make? CP = cost price of 1 bowl of soup SP = selling price of 1 bowl of soup Q = amount of soup I should make stop making soup when…. expected marginal income = marginal cost Prob(demand>Q) x SP = CP choose Q so that Prob(demand>Q) =CP/SP

Better Living Through Meteorology a probability forecast is required for rational decision making

Better Living Through Meteorology

when averaging ensembles you should average utility, not weather variables

Better Living Through Meteorology Bank of England issues inflation and GDP growth forecasts as fan-charts.

Better Living Through Meteorology

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