ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES OECDOCDE 1 Joint session Agenda item 13 (b) OECD balance of payments data- Quality review Presentation by OECD Statistics Directorate STATISTICS DIRECTORATE – INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 2 Quality framework for OECD statistical activities A quality framework to: –provide a systematic mechanism for the ongoing identification and resolution of quality problems; –increase the transparency of processes used by the OECD to assure quality of statistics; –reinforce the political role of the OECD in the context of an information society. Sets out quality dimensions of statistics in an international organisation Self-assessment and review by users and managers

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 3 Statistics Directorate Balance of Payments Activity (BOP) activity is twofold. Firstly compilation and maintenance of the BOP Dataset –to provide OECD analysts with timely comparable summary set of main BOP data items for OECD countries for economic forecasting and analysis Secondly coordination of OECD interests in Balance of Payments (excluding FDI methodology, where the DAFFE leads) –Represent OECD needs in methodological development work, e.g. related to work of the IMF BOPCOM Quality review report focuses mainly on the BOP dataset activity. Review excluded FDI and trade in services statistics

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 4 OECD BOP Dataset The BOP dataset, provides basic set of balance of payments components: covers trade in goods & services, other current account, capital account, direct investment and other financial account. The STD BOP data are based on Member countries’ and ECB’s published BOP data compiled and presented according to the principles of the IMF’s BPM5

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 5 Dissemination The BOP data are published within the Main Economic Indicators database. BOP MEI data is downloaded to the ECO Analytical Database Separately from MEI, customised reports are generated –approximately quarterly on FDI, which are provided to DAF; – on trade in goods and services quarterly for the International Trade Quarterly Press Release supplementing merchandise volume data aggregates tables on trade in services and current account balances have been published in the new OECD Factbook.

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 6 Main users Economics Department (ECO) main internal user. Need timely quarterly data for core BOP variables s.a. where appropriate, for economic forecasting/analysis prefer s.a. series which sum to the annual total. user survey 2002 identified priority set of variables ECO, during peak period need updates within 24 hrs of publication including all revisions. requested more proactive and transparent updating process with timetable, rather than current monthly cycle of updates OECD Quarterly National Accounts was an example of good practice ECO also request further improvements to data collection and management systems. important improvements in the quality and responsiveness of the BOP data service over the past few years other internal users are DAFFE and DSTI external users Governments, Economic Institutes, Private sector etc.

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 7 Other user requests zone totals for certain BOP variables, e.g. trade in goods, trade in services and FDI flows quarterly trade in goods and services aggregates in volume terms (available from QNA)

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 8 Coverage 30 OECD members Euro area Partial coverage of Big 6 non- members

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 9 Quarterly BOP core variables Current Account Goods credits, debits, balance nsa and sa Services credits, debits, balance nsa and sa Income credits, debits, balance nsa and sa Current transfers net nsa and sa Current balance nsa and sa Capital account Capital balance Financial Account Direct investment abroad, in the reporting economy Portfolio investment assets, liabilities Financial derivatives net Other investment assets, liabilities Change in reserve assets Financial balance Net errors and omissions

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 10 Accuracy data validation for changes to historic data at the time of data capture, multiple automatic internal consistency checks within the database, extensive visual checks at the time of publication. Data items failing checks are investigated further with checks against national sites and other sources e.g. IMF BOPS database. data collection procedures for a few countries sometimes leave uncertainty whether revisions have been fully captured. Accuracy of the STD BOP dataset is felt to be good.

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 11 Credibility benefits from the accuracy and consistency checking procedures undertaken benefited from IMF efforts -BPM5, Compilation Guide, Textbook, IMF training for compilers, and IMF DQAF quality reviews in countries. To achieve enhanced degree of international comparability In Europe additional comparability achieved by the methodological work of ECB and Eurostat. STD presentation of BOP data conforms to the norms set out in the BPM5.

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 12 Timeliness Timeliness is crucial Updating on monthly cycle. For monthly or quarterly BOP, all data are updated within one month of publication or of supply of data to OECD. 16 countries supply monthly BOP data National publication dates are monitored on IMF SDDS web pages. G7 countries update BOP dataset within 7 days data collection - web queries, s with files, regular interrogations of national databases, DRI data, and monthly CD- ROM by post data cannot be updated before countries make available. all countries supply quarterly BOP data 30 to 120 days after the end of reference period. After 100 days 90% of countries report quarterly data and it is on MEI. Enables OECD trade totals to be estimated. timeliness of the STD BOP dataset is sufficiently good to justify its existence – but we must keep improving,

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 13 Other quality criteria assessed Accessibility Interpretability Coherence Cost efficiency

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 14 Review conclusions more OECD zone totals, where appropriate e.g. for trade in goods and services and FDI. further extend automatic data collection and management including longer term developments of SDMX data exchange to improve: – the coherence and consistency of dataset, –timeliness, strengthen coverage of core variables, –transparency of updating, –coverage of revisions OECD BOP metadata should be reviewed and enhanced to make use of Metastore [To be completed end 2006]. Opportunities to raise profile of OECD BOP dataset should be investigated - OECD.STAT no clear demand for more monthly series or more quarterly detail to be collected.