Is the U.S. in an Economic Decline? New Canaan Senior Men Club – January 29, 2016 Paul A. Strassmann.

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Presentation transcript:

Is the U.S. in an Economic Decline? New Canaan Senior Men Club – January 29, 2016 Paul A. Strassmann

Presentation Outline Assessment of the Current Situation How to View the Stock Market Personal Prospects for Seniors How to Preserve Savings

Underlying Cause of Decline: Gross National Product Trend

U.S. Is Still Prosperous: GNP/Capita Ranks #12 Of 224 Countries

U.S. Stumble: Loss of Personal Income During Recent Recessions

Outlook not Promising: Public Debt Projected to Exceed the GDP

Major Hurdle: Debt More Than Doubled by $14 Trillion

Adverse Indicator: Debt/Person Increased Faster Than Population

Is That a Threat? - Foreigners Hold 65% of Personal Debt

Bad News: Federal Government Deficit Continues to Increase

Bad News: Deficits of State and Local Government Increasing

Unfavorable Trend: Negative Balance of U.S. Trade Since 1992

Unfavorable Trend: Personal Savings Rates Have Declined

An Unfavorable Indicator: Brokerage Debt is Increasing

Bad Sign: Investor Margin Debt Now Exceeds Market Capitalization

The Stock Market

Unfavirable Indicator: S&P 500 Becomes Unstable After 2000 :

Stock Market Overvalued According to Yale Dept. of Economics

Confirmation of Adverse Trend: S&P Earnings Yields Have Declined

A Warning: Stock Market Returns Have Declined Close to Zero

Bad Signal: Market Cap to GDP Growth Now Exceeds GDP Growth

Bad Signal: Market Cap/GDP is Now Greater Than 100%

Personal Prospects

Unfavorable Trend: Decline in the Value of a Dollar

Unfavorable Trend: Labor Force Stopped Growing

Of Interest to NC: Employment in Financial Sector Keeps Declining

Unfavorable Trend: Long Term Unemployment is Rising

Unfavorable Trend: U.S. Real Median Income Declined Since

Employee Share of Domestic Income Has Declined Since

U.S. Seniors Will Require a Larger Support Population

Occupancy of Housing is Shifting from Ownership to Rentals

Price of Homes Have Not Changed Since 2006 SOURCE:

Social Security Trust Fund Declines

How to Preserve Savings

Option: Follow What Leading Investors Do

Follow Performance of Leading Investors

Opportunities: Select High Performance Funds

Pick High Potential Opportunities

Scoreboard

Is the U.S. in an Economic Decline? U.S. Still the Greatest Economy But U.S. Is Slipping – Needs Fixing

SMC Investment Recommendations Rule # 1: Avoid Losses Rule # 2: Get Incremental Gains