It’s a Flood, Dam It! Identifying the End of Texas Drought John W. Nielsen-Gammon Texas State Climatologist D. Brent McRoberts Department of Atmospheric.

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Presentation transcript:

It’s a Flood, Dam It! Identifying the End of Texas Drought John W. Nielsen-Gammon Texas State Climatologist D. Brent McRoberts Department of Atmospheric Sciences

High-Resolution Drought Monitor Daily Stage 4 Precipitation Analysis (NWS’s River Forecast Centers) Historical COOP observations PRISM climate normals Improved drought metrics

High-Resolution Drought Monitor Phase 1: Texas Prototype Phase 2: National Application (USDA) Phase 3: From Experimental to Operational (NOAA)

Texas Drought, Phase 2 information SPI Blend: SPI calculated from a range of accumulation intervals instead of a single accumulation interval Minimum SPI blend: Lowest SPI value from blends ranging from 2 months to 2 years –Shows “worst” of short- & long-term conditions

Texas Water Storage Current Value Value when PDSI went positive Start of Drought

Lake Arrowhead

Palo Pinto Reservoir

Medina Lake

In Progress Phase 3: Removing radar-caused errors and artifacts from Stage 4 precip –Beam blockage –Range-dependence Overshooting Melting level Beam filling –Rainfall estimation biases

Future Validation Testing as NLDAS-2 input

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