Myanmar: Toward Universal Access to Electricity by Role of Minihydro Xiaoping Wang Senior Energy Specialist World Bank July 30, 2015

Roadmap to Achieve Universal Access by National Electrification Rate 30% 50% 75% 100%

20 Note: This map shows all settlement points the same size (regardless of population), overstating electrification with non-grid options (mini-grid and off-grid / solar home systems) Least-cost recommendation for By 2030, the majority are grid connections This represents 7.2 million households Total cost is estimated at US $5.8 billion (US$800 per connection, average) This is additional to investments needed for generation & transmission

More than 1.3 million HH will not get grid access in the next 10 years and are recommended for pre-electrification (purple dots) Shan, Chin, Kayah and Kachin States represent major areas for pre-electrification Appropriate pre-electrification technology depends on village size, including solar, minihydro, renewable and diesel hybrids, biomass, etc. 14 Recommendations for off-grid pre-electrification

A Bridge to a Sustainable Energy Future A B RIDGE TO U NIVERSAL E NERGY A CCESS 5 Myanmar National Electrification Plan (NEP) Serves as comprehensive action plan for developing, financing, and implementing electricity access scale-up program nationwide, with the target of achieving universal access by Aligns support from different stakeholders to implement national access targets and syndicate financing on a timely, ongoing and programmatic basis.

35kW 200 HH Private own 200W 1 HH

300kW > 2000 HHs ESE owned Mechanical power For small industry Private owned

Distribution line 300VA voltage stabilizer

A B RIDGE TO U NIVERSAL E NERGY A CCESS 9 Strengths - Local manufacture and engineering expertise - Villagers willing to pay/invest - Community driven Minihydro in Myanmar: SWOT Weaknesses -Inefficient, substandard technology -Unreliable power supply -Lack of national policy and regulations Opportunities -Very large hydro power potential -Proven technologies and business models in other developing countries -Readily available financial and technical assistance support Threats -Competing water uses -limited potential in some villages which may not be adequate to electrify the whole village -Seasonal and annual variation

From Plan To Action

A B RIDGE TO U NIVERSAL E NERGY A CCESS 11 - WB is committed to provide $400 million to help increase access to electricity in Myanmar - Expected outcomes include: New household connections in urban and rural areas Coordinated, sector-wide institutional framework for electrification Strengthened institutional capacity of implementing agencies National Electrification Project: Objectives

A B RIDGE TO U NIVERSAL E NERGY A CCESS 12 - Component 1: Grid rollout (US$ 300 million) - Component 2: Off-grid electrification (IDA US$ 80 million) - Component 3: Capacity building and technical assistance (US$ 20 million) - Component 4: Contingent Emergency Response (US$ 0 million) National Electrification Project: Proposed Components

A B RIDGE TO U NIVERSAL E NERGY A CCESS 13 Project Preparation Schedule MilestoneDate World Bank approves project conceptOctober 2014 World Bank appraises projectJune 2015 Parliament approves project requestAugust 2015 Government and World Bank negotiate project termsAugust 2015 World Bank Board of Directors approves projectSeptember 2015 Project implementation beginsOctober 2015

A B RIDGE TO U NIVERSAL E NERGY A CCESS 14 Bottom-up Approach Viable Needs further investigation Screening by PMO (union level) SHS Not viable Feasibility study Projects identified by developers List of Mini- grid project proposals Projects identified by DRD Pre-feasibility study Viable PMO evaluation Not viable Mini-grid construction & commissioning Input from VECs Project proposals Input from VECs

A B RIDGE TO U NIVERSAL E NERGY A CCESS 15 Principled, Evolving Process for Scale-up Basic principles: - The village is not among those listed for early phases of grid extension; - The village has not received SHS for more than 40% of village households from a prior DRD program; -The village appears able and willing to pay electricity tariffs; - The village has productive uses – more than household lighting; - The village has promising demographic characteristics: at least 50 households and clustered homes; - There are strong indications of community’s ability to work together; - Demonstrated renewable resource potential: year-round hydropower resource, plentiful source of agro-waste for biomass, solar resource, etc.

A B RIDGE TO U NIVERSAL E NERGY A CCESS 16 Principled, Evolving Process for Scale-up (continued) - DRD/NEP support includes:  Grant support for pre-feasibility and feasibility studies on a cost-sharing basis  Grant support for business plan development  Capacity building and training for DRD, local technical advisors, VECs, private companies, financial institutions  Partial grant support for construction and commissioning - DRD/NEP maintains a participatory and open process which is subject to continuous adjustments.

A B RIDGE TO U NIVERSAL E NERGY A CCESS 17 World Bank Engagement in Myanmar: NEP reports and project materials can be found at: Achieving_Universal_Access_to_Electricity_in_Myanmar Discussions and Q&As