The Development of IMACLIM-S Brasil William Wills, PhD

Cooperation CIRED - COPPE Emilio meets Hourcade and finishes his PhD at EHESS in 1979 Some Brazilians researchers come to work at CIRED after 1995: among them Ricardo Dutra, Amaro Olimpio, André Pereira, Carolina Dubeux, William Wills CentroClima e CIRED strengthen their cooperation to develop IMACLIM-S BR in 2010: Julien Lefevre and William Wills start to develop the Brazilian version of Imaclim : Maps project - Very important financial support to develop the model – Goal is to develop national dialogue platforms with strong modelling – South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru 2013: Projeto ICI/BMU: Biofuels – Land Use – Water – Food Security Nexus

Apoio

IES-Brasil Project Demanded by the Ministry of Environment of Brazil Coordinated by the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change Research execution coordinated by COPPE, with other research institution as partners Objective is to evaluate macroeconomic and social implications of mitigation scenarios in Brazil to provide the government robust information to propose new pledges in Paris 2015 (COP21) Involves 70 stakeholders: government, industry, NGOs, specialists, etc Stakeholders defines scenarios to be explored and assists researchers to calculate mitigation options costs and potentials for each sector.

Modelling mitigation measures in IMACLIM-S_BR Stakeholders are very worried about the precision of mitigation potentials and costs and the impact in their sectors Small technical groups formed to discuss BU modeling in details Sectorial disaggregation is important (16 sectors) Need to embark sectorial information: Technical coefficients changes according to Bottom-up, sectorial specific information: Fuel changes or fuel economy: technical coefficients are changed according to sectoral specific information for each measure Investments – Capital intensity of the sector changes according to sectoral specific information for each measure Imaclim tries to guarantee the alignment among different models/projections (softlink) Income distribution issues not at the core of the discussion, but they were interested to see the results (3 income classes)

Cooperation CIRED-COPPE

Methodological Approach Mitigation Measures Identification Costs and Abatement Potential Sectorial models simulation Costs and potentials verified and/or corrected Simulation of the measures in IMACLIM Correction of Level of Activity on sectorial models and balance between supply and demand Results

Reference Scenario - Government Plan World – GDP growth : 3.8% per year : 3.2% per year Average : 3.6% per year Brazil –GDP Growth : 3.7% per year : 4.1% per year Average : 3.9% per year Oil Price 85 US$/barril

Reference Scenario - Government Plan Exchange rate 2.20 R$/US$ Population 2014: 200 Million 2030: 223 Million Active population from 45.8% in 2005 to 49.7% in 2030 GDP Composition: % VA Agriculture5.3%5.6% Industry28.1%26.4% Services66.6%68.0%

Scenarios Description ScenarioDescription CPGReference Scenario – Follow trends from Copenhagen Pledges MA1-TMitigation Scenario 1 – (20 US$ carbon tax + mitigation measures) MA2-TMitigation Scenario 2 – (100 US$ carbon tax + mitigation measures) ScenarioDescription (Still working on them) MA1-NMitigation Scenario 1 – (mitigation measures, no Carbon Tax) MA2-NMitigation Scenario 2 – (mitigation measures, no Carbon Tax)

Mitigation Scenario 1 SECTOR MITIGATION MEASURE WASTE Methane destruction > Reference scenario SERVICES Moreefficient light bulbs ENERGY Sugar Cane Bagasse Wind Power TRANSPORT Traffic management Bike ways Energy efficiency programs for light vehicles Ethanol: + 6 Billion liters Biodiesel – B10 BRT Energy efficiency programs for heavy vehicles AFOLU Biological nitrogen fixation (Corn) Pasture restoration crop-livestock-forestry integration systems (+2M ha) Aforestation – 12.5 M ha Reforestation – Atlantic forest Sugar cane area increase (M1) INDUSTRY Cement: Reduction from 3,50 GJ/t clinquer in 2010 to 3,1 in 2030 and increase co-processing in 75% from 2010 level Steel: 2% reduction in energy intensity related to 2010

CPG MA1-TMA2-T Population (10^6) GDP (10^12 R$2005) GDP Growth per year (%) 3.88%3.87%3.81% GDP variation in relation to CPG in %-1.5% GHG emission reduction in relation to CGP in %-33.4% GHG emissions (Mt CO2eq./year) GDP per capita (10^3 R$2005) Macroeconomic Results

CPG-2030MA1-TMA2-T Total Jobs (10^6) Unemployment rate(%)9.90%6.70%4.4%4.2%3.9% Price index in relation to 2005 (%) 16.6% 20.1% 17.2% Trade Balance (10^6 R$2005) Trade Balance (% GDP)3.70%0.12%0.72%0.70%1.43% Investment rate (% of GDP)15.5%18.2%20.8%20.2%20.7% Total Investments (10^12 R$2005) Total Mitigation Investments (10^9 R$2005) Mitigation investments in 2030 (10^6 R$2005) Mit. Invest./GDP in %1.52% Macroeconomic Results

Phisical production = 1

Net Exports

Macroeconomic Results Income Classes definitions Income ClassMinimum wages in base year (125 US$ in 2005) Population distribution Class 1Up to 2 mwPoorest 15% Class 2from 3 to 10 mwNext 55% Class 3More than 10 mwRichest 30%

Macroeconomic Results GDP per Capita(R$ 2005) Average Income by Class (R$ 2005) TotalClass 1Class 2Class 3 Base year ,59 1,169 4,42126,360 CPG Average growth per year 24,87 3.1% 3, % 10, % 46, % MA1_T Average growth per year 23,83 2.9% 3, % 10, % 45, % MA2_T Average growth per year 22,50 2.7% 2, % 9, % 43, % GDP per capita and average income by class

GHG Emissions (Mt CO2 eq.) Emission reductions % MA1-T0%8%10%6%16% MA2-T0%11%17%21%33%

GHG Emission (Mt CO2 eq.)

GHG Emission by Sector(Mt CO2 eq.)

Some indicators...

2.4 Brazil 2005 Brazil MA2 Brazil MA1 Brazil CPG-2030 Brazil 2010 Energy Emissions – New Policies Scenario International Energy Agency - World Energy Outlook 2013

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